January 26, 2013


Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #4 of 2013 is pretty much a disaster: only $80 million for the top 12 films (20% behind the pace for the same weekend the last few years).  

Opening at 3,372 theaters Friday, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters grossed $6 million Friday and is on track for a $16 million opening weekend (very close to the $16.8 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast earlier this week).   The action-fantasy film starring Jeremy Renner is averaging $4,700 per theater for the weekend (slightly below the $5,333 average first weekend for all wide-release films the last two years).  Critics are not pleased with this film: only 14% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes.  Hansel and Gretel should disappear quickly and will struggle to get to $40 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,224 theaters, Parker grossed only $2.1 million Friday and is on track for a $6.5 million weekend (below the $8.8 million forecast).   The film is averaging only $2,900 per theater for the weekend, while critical sentiment is a weak 35% positive (although it can make the dubious claim of being the best-reviewed opener of the weekend).  Parker is headed for $18 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,023 theaters, Movie 43 grossed $1.8 million Friday and is on track for a $4.6 million weekend (significantly under the $11.5 million forecast).   The film is averaging a very low $2,300 per theater for the weekend, while critical sentiment is a dreadful 6% positive at RottenTomatoes.  Movie 43 is on track for a $7 million total domestic gross.

Weekend 4: January 25-27, 2013 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Hansel & Gretel: Witch Hunters Par [16.8] 16.0 6.02 40
Mama Uni [14.7] 12.5 3.80 75
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [7.8] 8.7 2.34 90
Zero Dark Thirty Sony [10.2] 8.5 2.33 95
Parker FilmDis [8.8] 6.5 2.13 18
Movie 43 Rel [11.5] 4.6 1.80 7
Django Unchained Weins [5.0] 4.5 1.22 165
Gangster Squad WB [4.6] 3.9 1.15 50
Les Miserables Uni [4.9] 3.8 1.00 150
Broken City Fox [—] 3.6 1.05 20
Lincoln DW/Fox/Dis [4.2] 3.5 0.87 175

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $80 million total Friday-Sunday, down a steep 21% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and down 19% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #4 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2013 $80 Hansel & Gretel $16, Parker $6.5, Movie 43 $4.6
2012 $98 The Grey $20, One for the Money $11, Man on a Ledge $8
2011 $92 The Rite $15, The Mechanic $11
2010 $110 Edge of Darkness $17, When in Rome $12
2009 $103 Taken $25, The Uninvited $10, New in Town $7
Avg 2009-12 $101

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.