July 23, 2011


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , ,

>Captain America beat expectations and opened far ahead of the second weekend of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, which should drop a hefty 72%.  Friends with Benefits opened OK but below forecast.  Overall, the weekend is up 14% versus the same weekend last year.   

Captain America: The First Avenger opened above forecast (over $25 million Friday for an expected $63 million this weekend versus a $58 million forecast).  In case you missed them, click here to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.  Captain America is headed for $185 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  And see Mitch Salem’s review of Captain America.   

Friends with Benefits will miss its lower forecast.  The R-rated comedy is expected to reach almost $18 million this weekend, below the $22.5 million prediction.  The film is headed for $66 million total in North America.  Read Mitch Salem’s review of Friends with Benefits.

Click “Read more” to see the complete box office chart.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 should plummet 72% from its record-setting opening weekend (a drop similar to that for Bruno and the 2010 remake of A Nightmare on Elm Street), and the film has been downgraded to $365 million.     

July 22-24, 2011        Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Captain America (Par)    [$58  ]    $63.3   $25.6     $185
Harry Potter 8  
(WB)     [$63  ]    $46.6   $14.5     $365–

Friends w/ Benefits Sony [$22.5]    $17.7   $ 6.8     $ 66 
Horrible Bosses (WB)     [$11  ]    $11.6   $ 3.7     $120+
Transformers 3  (Par/DW) [$11  ]    $11.5   $ 3.5     $371
Zookeeper (Sony)         [$ 8.5]    $ 8.6   $ 2.8     $ 82+
Cars 2 (Dis)             [$ 5  ]    $ 5.5   $ 1.7     $192
Winnie the Pooh
 (Dis)    [$ 5.5]    $ 5.1   $ 1.6     $ 34

Bad Teacher (Sony)       [$ 3  ]    $ 2.6   $ 0.8     $103
Larry Crowne (Uni)       [$ 1.5]    $ 1.0   $ 0.3     $ 37

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases

Sarah’s Key should open with a solid $21,500 average at 5 locations this weekend, while Another Earth should average a similar $19,800 at four locations.  (Click on the movie titles for Mitch Salem’s reviews.)

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $177 million total, up 14% from the same calendar weekend last year when Salt and Ramona & Beezus opened.  

Top 12 Films: Weekend #29

2011  $177  (
+10% vs 2007-10 average; +14% vs 2010) 

Avg   $161  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $155  Salt $36, Ramona & Beezus $8    

2009  $142  G-Force $32, The Ugly Truth $28, Orphan $13
2008  $174  Step Brothers $31, X-Files: I Want to Believe $10
2007  $172  
The Simpsons Movie $74, No Reservations $12Next Weekend

Opening next week are Cowboys & Aliens from Universal, Crazy, Stupid, Love from Warner Brothers and The Smurfs from Sony.  Those movies will be compared to Dinner for Schmucks ($23.5 million opening weekend), Cats & Dogs: Revenge of Kitty Galore ($12 million) and Charlie St. Cloud ($12 million), making next weekend another probable up weekend versus 2010. 

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.