Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #24 of 2013 looks like a really good $192 million for the top 12 films, not quite the $200+ million we forecast but still up 27% from the average for this weekend the past few years. Man of Steel is opening exactly at our expectations, while most of the holdovers are lagging somewhat below forecast.
Opening at 4,207 theaters late Thursday, Man of Steel from Warner Brothers grossed $44 million Friday (after collecting $12 million in previews Thursday) and is on track for a $111 million opening three-day weekend (nailing the $111 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). Thursday-Sunday will total $123 million if current trends hold. The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $26,400 per theater for the weekend (more than five times the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years), and critical sentiment is middling: 57% positive at RottenTomatoes (with top critics 54% positive). Man of Steel is headed for $310 million total domestic, allowing the leadership at Warner Brothers to breathe a lot easier. They are back in the race this year.
Opening at 3,005 theaters Wednesday, This Is the End from Sony grossed $6.9 million Friday is on track for a $21 million opening weekend (a touch below the $23 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is averaging $6,900 per theater for the weekend, while critical sentiment is enthusiastic: 84% positive at RottenTomatoes with all critics, as well as top critics. With the $12.3 million from Wednesday and Thursday, the end of the world comedy should total $33 million through Sunday. This Is the End is headed for $91 million total domestic.
| Weekend 24June 14-16, 2013 | ($ millions) | |||||
| Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast | Early Weekend Estimate | Actual Friday Gross | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||
| Man of Steel | WB | [111] | 111.0 | 44.0 | 310 | |
| This Is the End | Sony | [23.0] | 21.0 | 6.9 | 91 | |
| Now You See Me | Summit | [10.7] | 10.7 | 3.3 | 114 | |
| Fast & Furious 6 | Uni | [9.9] | 9.3 | 2.7 | 244 | |
| The Purge | Uni | [12.6] | 8.5 | 2.9 | 65 | |
| The Internship | Fox | [8.7] | 7.5 | 2.3 | 47 | |
| Epic | Fox | [7.2] | 6.2 | 1.8 | 114 | |
| Star Trek Into Darkness | Par | [5.6] | 6.0 | 1.4 | 233 | |
| After Earth | Sony | [4.5] | 3.8 | — | 61 | |
| Before Midnight | Sony | [2.9] | — | — | — | |
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.
In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $192 million total Friday-Sunday, up 27% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and up 56% from the same weekend last year.
| WEEKEND #24 | ($ millions) | ||
| Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films | Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only) | ||
| 2013 | $192 | Man of Steel $111.0, This Is the End $21.0 | |
| 2012 | $123 | Rock of Ages $14.4, That’s My Boy $13.5 | |
| 2011 | $147 | Green Lantern $53.2, Mr Popper’s Penguins $18.4 | |
| 2010 | $191 | Toy Story 3 $110.3, Jonah Hex $5.4 | |
| 2009 | $145 | The Proposal $33.6, Year One $19.6 | |
| Avg 2009-12 | $152 | ||
Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.
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