March 29, 2014

FRIDAY MARCH 28 Box Office Report

Based on Friday’s grosses, weekend #13 of 2014 looks like $126 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, down 10% from the average for this weekend the past several years.  

Opening at 3,567 theaters Friday, Noah from Paramount grossed $14.9 million through Friday, putting the film on track for a $40.4 million opening weekend (slightly above our $38.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast). The film is pacing toward a three-day average of $11,300 per theater for the weekend (above the $5,333 opening weekend average for all wide-release films the last two years). Critical sentiment is solid (76% positive overall and 79% positive with top critics). Noah is headed for $122 million total domestic.

Opening at 2,486 theaters Friday, Sabotage from Open Road Films grossed $1.8 million Friday, putting the film on track for a $5.3 million opening weekend (below our $7.8 million forecast). The film is pacing toward a perfectly awful $2,100 per theater for the weekend. Critical sentiment is very weak (21% positive overall at RottenTomatoes and 18% positive with top critics). Sabotage is headed for around $10 million total domestic.

Cesar Chavez from Lionsgate/Summit opened with $1.0 million Friday, headed for a $3.2 million opening weekend (below our $5.2 million forecast).  The bio-pic is averaging $4,800 per theater for the weekend at 664 theaters.  Cesar Chavez is on pace for about $9 million total domestic.

Expanding to 977 theaters this weekend, Grand Budapest Hotel is on pace for an $8.4 million weekend (near our $8.7 million forecast).  Revised domestic total: $55 million.

Also expanding this weekend, Bad Words is having the opposite reception in the marketplace: a $3,200 weekend average at 842 theaters for only $2.7 million this weekend (well below our relatively rosy $4.3 million forecast).

Weekend 13: March 28-30, 2014 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Noah Par [38.5] 40.4 14.9 122
Divergent LG/Sum [23.0] 26.5 8.3 158
Muppets Most Wanted Dis [10.3] 10.0 2.6 59
Mr Peabody & Sherman Fox/DWA [7.9] 9.5 2.2 120
Grand Budapest Hotel FoxS [8.7] 8.4 2.3 55
God’s Not Dead Free [6.2] 8.1 2.2 41
Sabotage OpenR [7.8] 5.3 1.8 10
Need for Speed Uni [—] 4.2 1.2 45
300: Rise of an Empire WB [3.9] 4.1 1.2 112
Non-Stop Uni [—] 3.9 1.2 96
Cesar Chavez LG/Sum [5.2] 3.2 1.0 9
LEGO Movie WB [—] 2.9 .69 255
Bad Words Uni/Foc [4.3] 2.7 .78 14

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America. A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $126 million total Friday-Sunday, down 10% from the four-year average for the comparable weekend and down 9% from the same weekend last year.

WEEKEND 13 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2014 $126 Noah $40.4, Grand Budapest Hotel (wide) $8.4, Sabotage $5.3, Cesar Chavez $3.2
2013 $140 G.I. Joe: Retaliation $40.5, TP’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor $21.6, The Host $10.6
2012 $140 Wrath of the Titans $33.5, Mirror Mirror $18.1
2011 $114 Hop $37.5, Source Code $14.8, Insidious $13.3
2010 $169 Clash of the Titans $61.2, TP’s Why Did I Get Married Too $29.3, The Last Song $16.0
Avg 2010-13 $141

Check back tomorrow for more complete Weekend Studio Estimates based on Saturday’s actual box office, as well as the International Box Office report.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.