May 28, 2011

FRIDAY MAY 27 BOX OFFICE RESULTS: Hangover 2 Delivers; Panda 2 Not So Much

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>Hangover Part II leads the way and ignites a huge weekend at the box office.  Kung Fu Panda 2 does not meet high expectations.

The Hangover Part II opened with $31 million on Thursday and earned another $30 million Friday.  It looks like the sequel will gross about $83 million during the traditional Friday-Sunday weekend definition and $102.5 million Friday-Monday.  For the ThursdayMonday period, the total cume is $134 million.  Any way you slice it, a great opening, propelling Hangover Part II to $287 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate. 

Kung Fu Panda 2 is coming in under expectations ($45 million Friday-Sunday vs a $65 million forecast).  The DreamWorks sequel is headed for $165 million according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  

Pirates 4 looks like it will drop about 54%, a little better than expected and almost sneaking past Kung Fu Panda 2.  And the durable Bridesmaids should drop only 22%, another great hold.  The Domestic Final for Bridesmaids has been upgraded again to $133 million.

Click “Read more” to see the complete box office chart and read about a rare “art house” film cracking the Top 10..

May 27-29, 2011         Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Hangover Part II (WB)    [$85  ]    $83.3   $29.7     $287
Kung Fu Panda 2 (Par/DW) [$65  ]    $44.8   $12.9     $165
Pirates Caribbean 4 (Dis)[$39  ]    $41.7   $11.2     $249
Bridesmaids (Uni)        [$14.5]    $16.3   $ 4.6     $133
Thor (Par)               [$ 8  ]    $ 9.1   $ 2.4     $185
Fast Five (Uni)          [$ 5.5]    $ 6.7   $ 1.8     $211
Midnight in Paris (Sony) [ n/a ]    $ 1.9   $ 0.5      n/a
Priest (Sony)            [$ 2  ]    $ 1.8   $ 0.5     $ 27
Rio (Fox)                [ n/a ]    $ 1.8   $ 0.4     $144
Jumping the Broom (Sony) [$ 2  ]    $ 1.8   $ 0.5     $ 37
Something Borrowed (WB)  [$ 2  ]    $ 1.7   $ 0.5     $ 37

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is reminder of each film’s ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade. 

Limited Releases

Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris expanded to 58 theaters and was able to land in the Top 10 of all films, landing at #7.  Very impressive.  Taking a similar track, Terrence Malick’s The Tree of Life will average about $109,500 at four locations between Friday and Sunday (similar to Midnight‘s performance last week).  These two films will be engaged in an interesting duel throughout the summer for art house bragging rights.  See Mitch Salem’s review of Tree of Life here

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like an impressive $212 million total, up 46% from the same calendar weekend last year.

Top 12 Films: Weekend #21
2011  $212  (
+41% vs 2007-10 average; +46% vs 2010) 

Avg   $150 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $145  Sex & City 2 $31, Prince of Persia $30

2009  $161  Up $68, Drag Me to Hell $16
2008  $164  Sex & City $57, The Strangers $21
2007  $129  Knocked Up $31, Mr Brooks $10

Next Weekend

Opening next week is X-Men: First Class from Fox.  This movie will be compared against a quartet of fairly soft openers: Get Him to the Greek ($17.6 million opening), Killers ($15.8 million), Marmaduke ($11.6 million) and Splice ($7.4 million).  Next weekend is yet another good opportunity for 2011 to make up more lost ground.

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.