November 17, 2012


More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Metcalf
Tags: , , , , , ,

Weekend #46 is on pace to exceed the multi-year average for this weekend by 17% — not as high as we forecast earlier this week but still very good.  The final Twilight film in the series is on pace to open with $135 million this weekend, below our forecast and a shade below the previous film.  Lincoln expanded with a very solid showing Friday — still at far fewer theaters than Twilight, the film’s projected $20 million weekend is a fine base from which to grow.     

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 from Summit opened with about $71 million Friday and is on pace for $135 million Friday-Sunday, meaning the $147.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast issued Wednesday was a bit optimistic.  If the $135 million opening weekend pans out, Breaking Dawn Part 2 will be a shade below the opening for Part 1 (see second table below for complete Twilight track).  The opening weekend translates to a robust $33,200 average at 4,070 theaters (compared to the $5,333 average for all wide-release films the last two years).  With 51% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes and because it’s a sequel and because its audience is very young, the film should play out rapidly and finish with around $277 million domestic.

Lincoln from Disney opened wide with about $6.4 million Friday and is on pace for $20 million Friday-Sunday, a touch higher than the $17.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast issued Wednesday.  The opening weekend translates to a solid $11,300 average at 1,775 theaters.  With 90% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes and due to a very old audience, the film should play for a long time and finish with around $86 million domestic.

Weekend 46: Nov 16-18, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Breaking Dawn Part 2 Sum [147.5] 135.0 71.2 277
Skyfall Sony [47.4] 41.0 12.3 250
Lincoln Dis [17.5] 20.0 6.37 86
Wreck-It Ralph Dis [20.3] 18.5 4.42 179
Flight Par [9.5] 8.7 2.53 87
Argo WB [4.5] 4.0 1.12 107
Taken 2 Fox [2.4] 2.2 .650 142

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

TWILIGHT Films TrackSummit Entertainment Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Domestic Total Overseas Total Worldwide Total
Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 11.16.2012 51% TBD TBD TBD TBD
Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1  11.18.2011 25% 138.1 281.3 423.8 705.1
Twilight Saga: Eclipse 6.30.2010 49% 64.8 (157.6 Wed-Sun) 300.5 398.0 698.5
Twilight Saga: New Moon 11.20.2009 28% 142.8 296.6 413.2 709.8
Twilight 11.21.2008 49% 69.6 192.8 199.8 392.6


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like an astounding $236 million total Friday-Sunday, up 17% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 10% from the same weekend last year.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #46 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2012 $236 Breaking Dawn Part 2 $135, Lincoln $20
2011 $215 Breaking Dawn Part 1 $138, Happy Feet Two $21
2010 $186 Harry Potter Deathly Hallows Part 1 $125
2009 $250 Twilight New Moon $143, The Blind Side $34
2008 $157 Twilight $69, Bolt $26
Avg 2008-11 $202

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.