FRIDAY NOVEMBER 16 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

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Weekend #46 is on pace to exceed the multi-year average for this weekend by 17% — not as high as we forecast earlier this week but still very good.  The final Twilight film in the series is on pace to open with $135 million this weekend, below our forecast and a shade below the previous film.  Lincoln expanded with a very solid showing Friday — still at far fewer theaters than Twilight, the film’s projected $20 million weekend is a fine base from which to grow.     

Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 from Summit opened with about $71 million Friday and is on pace for $135 million Friday-Sunday, meaning the $147.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast issued Wednesday was a bit optimistic.  If the $135 million opening weekend pans out, Breaking Dawn Part 2 will be a shade below the opening for Part 1 (see second table below for complete Twilight track).  The opening weekend translates to a robust $33,200 average at 4,070 theaters (compared to the $5,333 average for all wide-release films the last two years).  With 51% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes and because it’s a sequel and because its audience is very young, the film should play out rapidly and finish with around $277 million domestic.

Lincoln from Disney opened wide with about $6.4 million Friday and is on pace for $20 million Friday-Sunday, a touch higher than the $17.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast issued Wednesday.  The opening weekend translates to a solid $11,300 average at 1,775 theaters.  With 90% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes and due to a very old audience, the film should play for a long time and finish with around $86 million domestic.

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like an astounding $236 million total Friday-Sunday, up 17% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 10% from the same weekend last year.

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.