December 1, 2012


Based on Friday’s grosses, Weekend #48 is on pace to exceed the multi-year average for this weekend by 33% — the fourth weekend in a row 20% or more above the comparable weekend average.  All credit goes to strong holdovers Breaking Dawn Part 2, Skyfall, Lincoln, and even Life of Pi and Rise of the Guardians (both well above $10 million weekends).  The openers this weekend will be quickly forgotten and will have virtually no impact on the box office going forward.

Killing Them Softly from Weinstein opened with $2.5 million Friday, putting it on pace for $7.5 million Friday-Sunday, just below the $7.9 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast issued early this week.  The opening weekend translates to a terrible $3,100 average at 2,424 theaters (compared to the $5,333 average for all wide-release films the last two years).  Although professional critics gave it a 79% positive score at RottenTomatoes, real people gave it an “F” CinemaScore grade, according to Deadline.  Harvey Weinstein, who worried so loudly about movie violence after the Aurora, Colorado shootings, will probably sleep well tonight.  Any anxiety about the detrimental effect of this filmed violence is erased by the fact that no one wanted to see it in the first place.  Killing Them Softly should finish with around $23 million domestic.

The Collection from LD Entertainment opened with $1.1 million Friday, putting the film on pace for $3.1 million Friday-Sunday, actually a touch ahead of our $2.9 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  The opening weekend translates to a sour $2,200 average at 1,403 theaters.  With only 44% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes and based on its horror genre, the film should play out in a flash and end with around $8 million domestic.

Weekend 48: Nov 30-Dec 1, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Breaking Dawn Part 2 Sum [17.3] 17.0 5.4 285
Skyfall Sony [16.9] 16.3 4.8 290
Lincoln Dis [14.5] 14.2 4.0 136
Rise of the Guardians Par/DW [11.9] 12.6 2.9 83
Life of Pi Fox [12.4] 12.5 3.3 84
Killing Them Softly Weins [7.9] 7.5 2.5 23
Wreck-It Ralph Dis [7.3] 6.9 1.6 179
Red Dawn FilmDis [5.5] 6.3 2.0 42
Flight Par [4.5] 4.5 1.3 93
The Collection LD Ent [2.8] 3.1 1.1 8
Silver Linings Playbook Weins [—] 3.0 .91 n/a

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like a very good $106 million total Friday-Sunday, which would be up 33% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 45% from the same weekend last year.

 WEEKEND #48 ($ millions)
Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend (Fri-Sun only)
2012 $106 Killing Them Softly $7.5, The Collection $3
2011 $74 no new releases
2010 $78 The Warrior’s Way $3
2009 $91 Brothers $9, Armored $6, Everybody’s Fine $9
2008 $77 Punisher: War Zone $4, Cadillac Records $3
Avg 2008-11 $80

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses based on actual Saturday grosses.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.