FRIDAY OCTOBER 12 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

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The third up weekend in a row, weekend #41 will be about 16% ahead of the multi-year average for this weekend and a big 54% above last year’s disaster weekend.     

Sinister from Summit & Lionsgate opened with $7.4 million Friday and is on pace for $19.0 million Friday-Sunday, a touch stronger than the $16.2 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast issued Wednesday.  The opening weekend translates to a $7,500 average at 2,527 theaters (above the $5,333 average for all wide-release films the last two years).  Sinister should leave theaters with a $53 million total domestic gross.

Argo from Warner Brothers and star-director Ben Affleck opened with $5.8 million Friday and is on track for $17.2 million Friday-Sunday, near the $16.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  The film should average $5,300 per theater this weekend at 3,232 theaters.  Argo should leave North American theaters with about $59 million, slightly ahead of Sinister because dramas simply play longer than do horror films.

Here Comes the Boom from Sony and Adam Sandler’s Happy Madison banner struggled to a $3.6 million opening Friday and is on track for an $11.6 million weekend, almost exactly the $12.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  The Kevin James comedy should average a disappointing $3,900 per theater at 3,014 locations and should end its North American theatrical run with $34 million.

Seven Psychopaths from snakebit CBS Films opened with a quiet $1.4 million Friday and could hit $4.0 million over the weekend, below our already conservative $6.8 million forecast.   The film should average a really bad $2,700 per theater at 1,480 theaters.  Decent reviews should provide some playability — to $20 million ultimately domestic.

Atlas Shrugged Part II opened with $690,000 Friday on its way to maybe $1.9 for the weekend, slightly below our bearish $2.3 million forecast.  The film might end with $3 million in North America, less than $4.6 million domestic gross for Atlas Shrugged Part I.

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.

Although it will be down 54% from its opening weekend, Taken 2 will remain in the top spot with $22.6 million, exactly as forecast.  The film is still on track for just under $140 million in North America.

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a strong $119 million total Friday-Sunday, up 16% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 54% from the same weekend last year.

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.