October 13, 2012


The third up weekend in a row, weekend #41 will be about 16% ahead of the multi-year average for this weekend and a big 54% above last year’s disaster weekend.     

Sinister from Summit & Lionsgate opened with $7.4 million Friday and is on pace for $19.0 million Friday-Sunday, a touch stronger than the $16.2 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast issued Wednesday.  The opening weekend translates to a $7,500 average at 2,527 theaters (above the $5,333 average for all wide-release films the last two years).  Sinister should leave theaters with a $53 million total domestic gross.

Argo from Warner Brothers and star-director Ben Affleck opened with $5.8 million Friday and is on track for $17.2 million Friday-Sunday, near the $16.5 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  The film should average $5,300 per theater this weekend at 3,232 theaters.  Argo should leave North American theaters with about $59 million, slightly ahead of Sinister because dramas simply play longer than do horror films.

Here Comes the Boom from Sony and Adam Sandler’s Happy Madison banner struggled to a $3.6 million opening Friday and is on track for an $11.6 million weekend, almost exactly the $12.0 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  The Kevin James comedy should average a disappointing $3,900 per theater at 3,014 locations and should end its North American theatrical run with $34 million.

Seven Psychopaths from snakebit CBS Films opened with a quiet $1.4 million Friday and could hit $4.0 million over the weekend, below our already conservative $6.8 million forecast.   The film should average a really bad $2,700 per theater at 1,480 theaters.  Decent reviews should provide some playability — to $20 million ultimately domestic.

Atlas Shrugged Part II opened with $690,000 Friday on its way to maybe $1.9 for the weekend, slightly below our bearish $2.3 million forecast.  The film might end with $3 million in North America, less than $4.6 million domestic gross for Atlas Shrugged Part I.

Weekend 41: Oct 12-14, 2012 ($ millions)
Pre-Wknd Showbuzz Forecast Early Weekend Estimate Actual Friday Gross Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Taken 2 Fox [22.7] 22.6 6.9 138
Sinister Sum/LG [16.2] 19.0 7.4 53
Argo WB [16.5] 17.2 5.8 59
Hotel Transylvania Sony [17.7] 17.1 4.2 148
Here Comes the Boom Sony [12.0] 11.6 3.6 34
Pitch Perfect Universal [9.3] 9.1 3.0 73
Frankenweenie Disney [7.2] 6.2 1.8 39
Looper Sony/Tri [7.6] 6.1 1.9 72
Seven Psychopaths CBS [6.8] 4.0 1.4 20
Atlas Shrugged Part II Atlas [2.3] 1.9 .69 3

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film’s ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film’s total run in North America.  A “++” indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a “–” indicates a downgrade.


Although it will be down 54% from its opening weekend, Taken 2 will remain in the top spot with $22.6 million, exactly as forecast.  The film is still on track for just under $140 million in North America.

In case you missed them, click to see this week’s Weekend Predictions.


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a strong $119 million total Friday-Sunday, up 16% from the average comparable weekend the last four years and up 54% from the same weekend last year.

($ millions)
WEEKEND #41 Weekend Volume: Top 12 Films Top Movies Opening Each Weekend
2012 $119 Sinister $19, Argo $17, Here Comes the Boom $12, Seven Psychopaths $4
2011 $77 Footloose $16, The Thing $8.5, The Big Year $3
2010 $120 Jackass 3-D $50, Red $22
2009 $128 Where Wild Things Are $33, Paranormal Activity $20, Law Abiding Citizen $21
2008 $85 Max Payne $18, W $10.5, Secret Life of Bees $10.5
Avg 2008-11 $102

Check back tomorrow morning for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.