June 18, 2012

FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS and YEAR TO DATE June 11-17 — Summer Volatility Continues

The domestic box office was back down this week.  Volatility has been the operative word recently.  The first two weeks of May (April 30-May 13) were up more than 35% each from prior years, followed by the next three weeks (May 14-June 3) which were down around 15% each week.  Then last week was up 11%, but the toxic combination of Rock of Ages and That’s My Boy reversed the momentum.  It seems this is the summer of highly selective moviegoers.  A few more grand slams are to be had, but the strikeout rate for the studios is rising.  

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between June 11 and June 17 grossed $195 million, down 5% from the same week in 2011 and down a more disturbing 15% from the four-year average for the comparable week.  Year to date (now $4.6 billion for wide-release films) is now 12% ahead of 2011 (down from 13% last week) and 10% ahead of the more stable multi-year average for the year-to-date period (down from +11% last week).

Domestic Box Office Volume: All Wide-Release Films through June 17, 2012 ($ millions)
2011 4-year Average 2012 vs 2011 vs 4yr Avg
Week #24 $206 $228 $195 -5% -15%
Year to Date $4,134 $4,212 $4,623 +12% +10%


Weekend Actuals versus Studio Estimates

The studio estimate for Rock of Ages turned out to be very optimistic, while That’s My Boy actually came in above the Sony forecast Sunday.  Rock of Ages actually grossed $14.437 million Friday-Sunday, 4.1% below the $15.06 million weekend estimate issued by Warner Brothers Sunday morning.  In contrast, the actual opening for That’s My Boy ($13.454 million) was 3.5% above the $13.0 million estimate.  


Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks. Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings.

Updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Finals Domestic Final Gross ($ millions) percentile
Marvel’s The Avengers 609 99
Madagascar 3 209 94
Men in Black 3 183 92
Snow White and the Huntsman
154 89
Prometheus 136 86
Dark Shadows 77 70
Battleship 64 65
The Dictator 62 62
What to Expect When You’re Expecting 42 49
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 42 48
Rock of Ages 42 48
That’s My Boy 36 43


Weekend Predictions for June 22-24 should be posted late Wednesday.  This weekend features the debuts of Brave and Abraham Lincoln Vampire Hunter.

Also, catch the latest update on the ShowbuzzDaily Summer Movie Fantasy Draft.

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About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.