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October 10, 2011
 

FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS & YEAR TO DATE October 3-9

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>The past week (seven days ending Sunday) is up 5% versus last year’s comparable week.  Year-to-date box office is now down 3.2% versus last year, the smallest year-to-year margin we’ve seen so far this year.       


The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between October 3 and October 9 grossed an okay $116 million, up 5% versus the same week in 2010 but down 4% from the average comparable week the past four years.  Year to date, all films are now down 3.2% from the same period last year.  (Last week the margin was -3.3%.)  

All Films October 3-9
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2010    Avg     2011    2010    Avg

Week #40     $110    $121    $116    
+ 5%    – 4%

Year to Date $8016   $7582   $7762   -3.2%   +2.4%





Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) for recent films are summarized below.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 

The Lion King in 3D ($104 million, 79th percentile)
Real Steel ($81 million, 72nd percentile)
Contagion ($78 million, 71st percentile)
Dolphin Tale ($74 million, 69th percentile)

Moneyball ($71 million, 67th percentile)
The Ides of March ($38 million, 45th percentile)
Drive ($35 million, 42nd percentile)
50/50 ($35 million, 42nd percentile)
The Debt ($31 million, 35th percentile)
Courageous ($26 million, 28th percentile)
Abduction ($26 million, 29th percentile)
Killer Elite ($25 million, 27th percentile)
Dream House ($18 million, 18th percentile)
Shark Night 3D ($18 million, 18th percentile)
Warrior ($15 million, 13th percentile)
What’s Your Number? ($15 million, 13th percentile)
Straw Dogs ($10 million, 8th percentile)
I Don’t Know How She Does It ($9 million, 5th percentile)

Weekend Actuals vs Sunday’s Studio Projections 



The weekend Studio Projections (Friday and Saturday actual numbers with estimates for Sunday’s box office) for the top four films were uncannily accurate, when compared to the actual box office numbers in today.       

 

      Weekend of                 Sunday    Monday   Showbuzz
      October 3-9                Studio    Weekend  Domestic
      (millions)                Estimate   Actual    Total

Real Steel                (Dis)   $27.3    $27.3     $ 81
Ides of March            (Sony)   $10.4    $10.5     $ 38
Dolphin Tale               (WB)   $ 9.2    $ 9.1     $ 74
Moneyball                (Sony)   $ 7.5    $ 7.5     $ 71
50/50                  (Summit)   $ 5.5    $ 5.7     $ 35

Courageous               (Sony)   $ 4.6    $ 4.9     $ 26
The Lion King in 3D       (Dis)   $ 4.5    $ 4.6     $104-

Dream House               (Uni)   $ 4.5    $ 4.5     $ 18
What’s Your Number?       (Fox)   $ 3.1    $ 3.1     $ 15

Contagion                  (WB)   $ 2.8    $ 2.9     $ 78
Abduction                  (LG)   $ 2.9    $ 2.9     $ 26

Read the International Box Office Numbers round-up if you haven’t seen it already.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.