Holiday Movie Season: December 26 Pales in Comparison to Boffo Christmas Day

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Eleven days into the three-week holiday movie season, 2012 is now 9.5% behind the average for the same period over the last several years ($316 million this year versus $349 million on average 2004-2011).  Further, 2012 is 13.7% behind the last time Christmas fell on a Tuesday (2007’s $366 million over this period).   The -24% drop from December 25 to 26 is unprecedented in the last decade.  Generally, December 26 is either up substantially (+13% in 2011, +17% in 2009, +26% in 2003, and +33% in 2005), even with December 25 (0% in 2006 and +1% in 2004) or down moderately (-5% in 2008, -7% in 2010 and -12% in 2007).  Since 2007 has the same calendar layout as this year (December 26 on Wednesday), we fully expected a similar decline from Christmas Day (-10 to -15%).

The -24% decline in total box office was concentrated in the big openers.  Les Miserables and Django Unchained both declined 33% on Wednesday from their solid Tuesday openings, and Parental Guidance, with its much smaller base, also dropped 32%.  The Hobbit was the only significant movie in release to hold its December 25 business on the 26th.  While the second-day fall-offs for the Christmas openers are sizable (and the overall top 10 decline on the 26th is unusually severe), let’s see how the box office generally and the new movies in particular sort out over the next few days.  Keep in mind the December 26th volume for the top 10 is exactly in the middle of the pack — four years are below yesterday’s $51.9 million, while five years are above it.  (December 26, 2012 is only below the multi-year average because the $59.3 million average is so skewed by 2009.)  And keep in mind the -24% decline from the 25th to the 26th looks so bad mainly because December 25, 2012 was such a big success.

Chances are the 2012 holiday season regresses to the mean from now on, and we are looking at seven more days at the $40+ million level for the top 10 (with January 1 close to $50 million).  In that case, Les Miserables and Django Unchained should get back on track and carry the box office along with The Hobbit.  However, if Les Miserables and Django Unchained are instead more niche players that happened to have a terrific one-day opening, we will see continued declines on the 27th and 28th for those new movies and for the box office generally.  Check back tomorrow for the latest.