October 23, 2011


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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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>The Worldwide Box Office chart now tracks the movies released in the U.S. the last three months.  This will provide a clearer view of the marketplace at any point of the year.  Remember that each week going forward, movies will be added to the ranking and the oldest movies will be deleted as they fall out of the rolling three-month timeframe. 

New to the rankings this week are Paranormal Activity 3, The Three Musketeers and Johnny English Reborn.  Paranormal Activity 3 is on a normal release track in which it rolls out overseas as it plays in North America.  We estimate the horror-suspense film will finish with $115 million domestically, and it is off to good start with $26 million overseas.  If it makes slightly more overseas than at home (as the second film in the series did), it could reach a worldwide total of around $240 million.  The key number to watch is the overseas-to-date total for the film — to see if it can grow from $26 million to over $100 million.

Domestic duds The Three Musketeers and Johnny English Reborn, in contrast, have a much more unusual release pattern: released around the world well before coming to America.  Musketeers has already grossed $64 million overseas, while the best it will do here is $20 million (and that will be a bit of a stretch).  Look for it to maybe fight its way to $100 million worldwide.  Johnny English Reborn has grossed $105 million overseas (with an additional $8 million to come from North America).  It might make it to $120 million worldwide in coming weeks.

Real Steel is doing nicely around the world.  Its overseas total to date ($86 million) is about to overtake its projected domestic final ($94 million).  It might be able to make it to $200 million worldwide.

Contagion is finally starting to be seen around the world.  Overseas numbers are starting to come in and it is currently sitting at $23 million (versus a domestic final of $79 million).  Not unthinkable that it could get to $90 million overseas and $170 million worldwide.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.