Official studio estimates are in for New Year’s Weekend in the US, but overseas numbers are still sketchy. A few notes:
ROGUE ONE (Lucasfilm/Disney) had a US result in keeping with preliminary numbers, up 15% on Sunday and with an anticipated 12% Monday drop. This puts it at $439.7M domestically, 41% below The Force Awakens after 18 days of release, and heading for $550M here. The more important number, though, is the overseas running total of $350M after a $45.8M weekend playing everywhere except China. It’s getting hard to see a path for Rogue One to more than match its US total overseas, a blow to Disney, which had put a lot of effort into broadening the franchise’s international footprint after Force Awakens earned 55% of its global total outside the US. Nevertheless, a $1.1B worldwide total (which could very possibly stretch to $1.15B, allowing it to duel with Captain America: Civil War for the biggest title of 2016) is hardly anything to weep about.
SING (Illumination/Universal) had a 10% increase on Sunday and is hoping to stay steady today as parents need one more family event before schools start again, putting it at $180M here. It also had a moderate $24.3M weekend in 56 markets (not yet including China, France, the UK or Japan) for a $105M total.
PASSENGERS (Village Roadshow/LStar/Columbia/Sony) gained 27% on Sunday and is expecting a 23% drop today to put it at $61.5M in the US. It’s currently at $60M overseas and has a long way to go before it can thinking about breaking even on $250M in production/marketing costs.
Oddly enough, it was WHY HIM? and ASSASSIN’S CREED (both 20th) that had the biggest New Year’s Day lifts in the Top 10, respectively up 48% and 44%. That still leaves them at $37.6M and $41.9M as of Monday, which won’t get them very far (especially the costly Assassin’s Creed), but their audiences were active on the holiday.
LA LA LAND (Summit/Lionsgate) had the highest per-theatre average this weekend of any film in wide release, even higher than Rogue One, and stands at $37M as of Monday. It’s also at $27.8M early in its international release, largely due to a remarkable $17.7M in Korea, where it’s just slightly below the totals for franchise movies like X-Men: Apocalypse ($20.6M) and Jason Bourne ($19.1M).
As with the wider release films, some of the least successful limited titles had the largest New Year’s bumps. LIVE BY NIGHT (Warners), which is flailing with a 3-day per-theatre average of $9K at 4, is nevertheless reporting a 89% increase on Sunday. Similarly, A MONSTER CALLS (Focus/Universal), with its $5300 weekend average at 4, had a 54% Sunday bump. The more stable PATRIOTS DAY (CBS/Lionsgate) also had a strong Sunday with a 70% Sunday increase and $21K weekend average at 7, and SILENCE (Paramount), with a $20.8K weekend average, rose 55% on Sunday. All of these films will shift into wide release over the next few weekends as they hope to benefit from awards season.
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