February 14, 2013

Season Averages: FOX Poised to Move Into 2nd Place Soon, Pushing NBC to 3rd

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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Through February 4 (20 weeks into this broadcast season), CBS leads with a 2.70 rating with adults 18-49, followed by NBC (2.40), FOX (2.19) and ABC (1.83).  But very soon, FOX will move past NBC in the season averages and is not likely to let go of second place.

Looking at the rest of the season through May, there is one key date that stands out: March 25, when The Voice returns to NBC.  Until then, NBC should continue to average around a fourth-place 1.35 rating.  CBS will lead with something around a 2.85, followed by 2.30 or so for FOX and 1.75 for ABC.

Six more weeks of those ratings will bring FOX into second place for the season, pushing NBC to third place.  Through March 24 (26 weeks into the season), we forecast the season to date ratings to be: CBS (2.74), FOX (2.21), NBC (2.16) and ABC (1.81).

After The Voice returns to the NBC schedule, we see NBC averaging around a 2.10 each week, ahead of ABC’s 1.75 but still behind CBS (2.85) and FOX (2.30).

If those assumptions are correct, after 35 weeks through May 26 the final standings would be: CBS (2.77), FOX (2.24), NBC (2.14) and ABC (1.80).

Stay tuned for continued updates and revised forecasts.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.