September 24, 2011

THE BIJOU: UPDATED Early Boxoffice – 9/23/11

More articles by »
Written by: Mitch Salem
Tags: , , , , , ,


The Hollywood Reporter has fresher boxoffice numbers.  MONEYBALL’s start isn’t quite as high as it had looked, but a Friday close to $7M is still excellent, and should lead to a $20M or so weekend, especially since exit polls indicate audiences are in line with critics on this one.  THE LION KING, entering what’s supposed to be its final pre-blu-ray weekend, is right behind with a $6M Friday that could actually put it in 1st place when matinees are counted.  Still in the race is DOLPHIN TALE, with a $5M Friday, but also the first A+ Cinemascore since The Help, which may buoy its weekend multiple to the same $20M level.

Among the also-rans, try to duck if you’re in the path of the massive amount of spin being thrown by Taylor Lautner’s reps:  a $4M opening day that will probably lead to around a $10-11M weekend means that outside his vampiric franchise, he’s no movie star.  KILLER ELITE is one notch behind, with a $3.7M opening that should also land it in the neighborhood of $10M.  

DRIVE fared best among the holdovers, and should fall less than 50% in its second weekend.  I DON’T KNOW HOW SHE DOES IT will slip by half, and STRAW DOGS is likely to fall by 55% or so.

Deadline has some preliminary numbers for the day, and MONEYBALL seems to be having a very strong start, with $8M or so.  Given the quality of the picture (a stellar 94% on Rotten Tomatoes), good word of mouth should be assured, and the weekend could reach close to $24M.  That will probably put it in a tight race with DOLPHIN TALE, which is only headed for $6M on Friday, but should have strong Saturday family matinee business; that could put it in the low $20Ms for the weekend.  A notch below is ABDUCTION, which is also looking for $6M on Friday, but with star Taylor Lautner’s notoriously front-loaded teen girl fans, it may not get much above $15M for the weekend.  Bringing up the rear is KILLER ELITE, which is headed for $5M on Friday and probably low teens over the weekend.

Check out Mitch Metcalf’s boxoffice predictions, and stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis.

About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."