January 6, 2013

The Sked: Forecast for Monday

Monday night features the premiere of NBC’s temporary schedule until The Voice returns.  The Biggest Loser settles into its new night (after a preview tonight featuring the return of trainer Jillian Michaels) from 8-10 pm, followed by the premiere of new drama Deception.  ABC premieres The Bachelor directly against Biggest Loser and follows that up with a new episode of Castle.  FOX’s schedule includes a repeat Bones followed by the series finale of The Mob Doctor.

None of this second-tier programming is forced to face original episodes of the stronger CBS line-up, which is taking a break against the real competition on the night: the NCAA football National Championship on ESPN (Alabama versus Notre Dame).

The college football National Championship (8:30-11:30 pm) will score around a 9.5 rating with Adults 18-49, up significantly from the all-SEC contest last year (an 8.7 rating for Alabama-LSU).

ABC should average around a 2.0 for the night.  The Bachelor should post a 2.0 from 8-10 pm, down from a 2.2 last year on the same night because of the increased competition from Loser.  At 10 pm, Castle should lead the broadcast networks with a 2.2 rating, down from 2.3 last year.

NBC will average a similar 2.0 for the night, edging ABC from 8-10 but falling behind at 10 pm.  Biggest Loser should average a 2.1 from 8-10 pm, beating last year’s 8-9 pm program (1.6 for Who’s Still Standing?) but not quite matching the early levels of the return of Fear Factor (2.3 from 9-10 pm last year).  At 10 pm, a 1.9 rating for the premiere of Deception will tower above the 0.7 rating turned in by Rock Center last year on the same night, but the show will likely drift down in the following weeks to a 1.7 as it faces original Hawaii Five-O episodes.  It will be a long walk in the desert on Mondays (and across the entire week) for NBC until The Voice returns in March.

CBS should make it a three-way tie for the original three broadcast networks: a 2.0 rating for its repeat line-up (down from a 2.1 last year).

FOX should average under a 1 rating for the repeat Bones (0.8 rating) and the merciful end of Mob Doctor (0.5 rating), well under the 1.1 rating for the night last year.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.