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HBO, wanting to give its high-profile David Milch/Michael Mann/Dustin Hoffman/Nick Nolte horseracing drama LUCK the best possible promotional platform, premiered the pilot as a “special preview” following what turned out to be the shocking season finale of BOARDWALK EMPIRE. The first part of the plan worked: Boardwalk scored a terrific (by its standards) 1.3 rating in 18-49s and 3 million total viewers, a season high. But the audience fled at the prospect of Luck: the 18-49 number plummeted 70% to a 0.4, and the total audience figure wasn’t much better, down to about 1.1 million viewers.
This is pay-cable, where the standards are different: Luck‘s 0.4 isn’t all that much lower than the 0.5 Homeland did on Showtime, where that spectacularly good show is considered a big hit, even though it loses almost half of its Dexter lead-in. Reviews, awards, and general “buzz” are critical for these networks. (Put another way: they don’t care if subscribers actually watch the shows, as long as they feel like they should be watching.) Still, Luck is a very expensive show to produce, and it won’t have a lead-in again like the one Boardwalk Empire gave it on Sunday night. In the parlance of the show: if you’re putting down a future bet on the long-time viability of Luck, make sure you’re getting long odds.
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