September 18, 2012

The Sked: Monday Ratings September 17 — The Premieres Begin

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Written by: Mitch Metcalf
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NBC had a terrific first night of The Voice and Revolution combo.  In its second Monday this season, The Voice perked up to a 4.6 rating with Adults 18-49 from 8-10 pm, up from a 4.2 last Monday.  There seemed to be a lot of radio advertising over the weekend and all day yesterday driving tune in to this night, and it seems to have paid off.  So season to date, The Voice Monday is averaging 4.4, above the 4.0 rating we forecast for the entire quarter back in May.  We expect The Voice to drift down a bit as the competition heats up and CBS premieres next week — a 4.1 or 4.2 is probably more likely for The Voice for the September through December period.

Revolution debuted at 10 pm with a very good 4.1 rating, much better than the out-of-gate disaster The Playboy Club in the time period one year ago (1.6) and close to the debut of Smash (3.8) in February.  Like Smash, we expect a downward trajectory in this serialized tale of the electricity-free world, however.  Back in May, we forecast a 2.2 rating for the entire fall for Revolution (assuming it might start around a 3.4 and work its way down to a 2.2).  With a 4.1 as the starting point, it is more likely Revolution can manage a 2.7-2.8 for the fall average.  We’ll definitely know within the first four weeks.

Over on FOX, Bones premiered with a 2.3 rating, slightly above the 2.1 we forecast for the fourth quarter.  Given that the show will settle down a bit with full competition on CBS and ABC in the coming weeks, a 2.1 looks very possible for the Bones fall average.  But then there’s Mob Doctor.  The show with the preposterous premise and are-they-joking? promo campaign debuted with a 1.5 rating.  Stillborn.  DOA.  Stick a fork in it.  Playboy Club.  Lonestar.  We forecast a 1.8 for the entire fourth quarter.  It will probably run once more, perhaps hitting a 1.3, and averaging a 1.4 for its two-episode run.  So we will end up being a little too high on the Mob Doctor forecast, but in the right ballpark.

ABC managed a 1.7 rating from 8-11 with the CMA Music Festival: Country’s Night to Rock, one of those specials a network runs to get the more attractive CMA Awards in November.  But, hey, it was new programming and better than another 0.7 rated night.

CBS finished fourth with a 1.3 for repeats of its regular Monday schedule.  They will be battling NBC next week for bragging rights on Monday with their big night of season premieres.

About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.