The Sked: Monday Ratings September 24 — The Season Begins

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It’s going to be a long fall for CBS on Monday nights.  Last night’s slate of season premieres on CBS average a 2.7 Adult 18-49 rating in the fast nationals, far below the 3.6 nightly rating we forecast back in May for the entire fall run of original episodes on CBS Monday.  That 3.6 forecast would have been down 13% from the fall of 2011 on CBS Monday (fueled by the debut of Ashton Kutcher on Two and a Half Men).  Now the night is on pace to be down 35% or more year to year.

NBC, in contrast, is doing just fine.  Last night came down, as expected, from the early premiere last week, but the night is still a very good 4.0 rating from 8-11 pm.  A little more settling is probably in store in the next few weeks, but NBC Monday is nonetheless on track to finish Mondays this fall above our 3.4 estimate.

ABC is averaging a 2.6 last night from 8-11 pm, but keep in mind the ABC lineup of Dancing and Castle did not air on either WBAY in Green Bay or WISN in Milwaukee, two ABC stations that carried Monday Night Football instead (Green Bay at Seattle on ESPN nationally).  When the officials are released this afternoon, the ABC Monday number will drop to a 2.5 and maybe even a 2.4 rating — not a good start relative to our 2.7 ABC Monday forecast.

FOX continued its losing ways Monday, down another tenth on the night and finishing in a distant fourth place.

Did CBS actually air the correct episodes last night?  It looks like a night of repeats, not season premieres.  Partners looks wobbly right out of the gate, and 2 Broke Girls is far from 9 pm anchor material.  And Hawaii Five-O, wowza. Very few shows have dropped to irrelevance so fast.

Revolution has a shot at holding the line at a 3.0 rating each week by mid-October — or at worst a high-2 rating, far above our pessimistic 2.2 rating forecast for the entire fall.  And The Voice could very well slide to the 4.0 we forecast for the fall average by late October, but still — it’s tops on the night and a great foundation for NBC Monday.

Both Dancing with the Stars and Castle will decline in the official nationals when Green Bay/Milwaukee NFL viewing is processed out.  If Dancing falls to a 2.6 and Castle to, say, a 2.3, it won’t be horrible news for ABC…jusy mildly disappointing.

Goodbye, Mob Doctor and your comically insane premise.  Bones, you are the reliable but not terribly exciting show you have always been.  Much work to be done to spruce up this night.