The Sked: Sunday Ratings and Network Averages for First Three Weeks

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NBC had a very typical Sunday night win — we are projecting their Adult 18-49 rating for the night will go up to a 6.3 in the official nationals tomorrow.  FOX should have been a strong second place because it had the NFL afternoon doubleheader leading into prime (usually around a 4.6 rating from 7-10 pm), but FOX is headed for about a 2.9 rating last night (and that’s with a slight upward adjustment in the MLB playoff game).  ABC has sunk to a 2.2 rating, probably near the bottom for the network this fall on Sundays, while CBS should average a similar 2.2 (without the benefit of an NFL lead-in this week).

ABC must be troubled by the 3.0 for Once Upon a Time, by far the lowest episode of the season. Meanwhile at 10 pm, 666 Park Avenue dropped again and is going nowhere fast.  Relatively stable in all this downdraft is Revenge at 9 pm, clinging to the pace set by the fading Desperate Housewives last season.

Last night’s lopsided game between the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans is currently at a 6.9 rating in the fast nationals, and that game rating should rise to a 7.6 in the official nationals.

FOX had a wonderful night in the first hour.  The end of the New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers should go up to a 7.0 rating from 7-7:30 pm ET, while The OT at 7:30 should earn about a 4.4 rating.  Then the scene shifted from Candlestick Park up the peninsula to ATT Park for the NLCS Game 1, with FOX announcer Joe Buck actually calling both games.  As we have seen, there has been very little interest in the MLB post season.  The fast nationals indicate last night’s baseball game (game 1 of the National League Championship Series) scored a 1.8 rating, although we are giving the game an estimated 2.0 rating when the West Coast and Bay Area viewing is properly tabulated in the official nationals.  There is not a direct comparison to last year due to a playoff game postponement, but this is not an encouraging rating for MLB.

CBS had a typically quiet night without the NFL late game lead-in.

SEASON TO DATE through three full weeks (18 nights of official ratings and 3 nights of adjusted fast nationals), NBC is averaging a 2.81 rating in prime time (up 12% from the first three weeks last year).

CBS is second with a 2.30 (down 24%).

FOX is a close third with a 2.26 (down 22%).

ABC is fourth with a 2.07 (down 15%).

Collectively, the four networks total a 9.43 rating (down 13% from 10.85 the first three weeks last fall).

Looking at the rest of the season, NBC will probably decline to a 2.1 on Sunday nights from January to May (from the 6.7 it is enjoying so far on Sundays).  That will bring NBC’s weekly average from around a 2.8 in the fall to a 2.0 after January.    All of that puts NBC on track for a 2.3 for the entire season.

CBS should lift three to four tenths in its season average with the Super Bowl alone — so CBS is on track for a 2.6 season.

FOX generally lifts with American Idol in the second half, but that lift has been decreasing.  We’ll say FOX’s current 2.3 pace will rise to a 2.4 rating for the entire season.

ABC generally stays on track throughout the entire season given its initial pace, so ABC should finish with a 2.1 rating for the season (barring a miracle midseason hit, which does not seem to be coming).

We’ll readjust these long term forecasts in a few weeks, but it looks like the most interesting race to watch over the course of the season is the battle for second place between FOX and NBC.