The Sked: Sunday Ratings and Season to Date Update

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NBC had a relatively weak Sunday night, but it still won the night handily.  CBS had a very good Sunday, as the 4:30 pm national NFL game went into overtime and ended closer to 8 pm than the expected 7:30 pm.  ABC bounced back a bit from last week, while FOX took it on the chin and fell to fourth place on the evening (no football leading into prime time and the cursed baseball playoffs replacing the animated comedies).

ABC can breath a giant sigh of relief — last week seems like an aberration for the dramas.  Once Upon a Time bounced back to the rating from two weeks ago, while Revenge and 666 Park Avenue rebounded to ratings above the week two levels.  666 is not out of the woods yet, but at least it has stopped the bleeding and is no longer pacing below Pan Am‘s relative level.

Steelers at Bengals averaged a preliminary 6.0 rating in the fast nationals — we are adjusting the game up to a 6.9 rating.  The actual number will be available tomorrow with the official nationals.

FOX suffered through Game 6 of the National League Championship Series: a preliminary 1.7 rating in the fast nationals.  We are estimating the official rating will go up to around a 2.1, unbelievably the same number a Game 1 last Sunday.  Game 7 airs tonight on FOX (the winner of St Louis at San Francisco will host Detroit for Game 1 of the World Series Wednesday).  Game 7’s are normally fairly highly-rated affairs, but given the utter lack of interest in the postseason this year, the game will be lucky to break a 3 rating tonight.  After all, it has to face an NFL game from about the fourth inning on (Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears on ESPN) as well as another highly rated sporting event on multiple networks: Obama vs. Romney.

CBS made the most of an NFL doubleheader: Jets at Patriots in overtime, pushing 60 Minutes to 8:00 pm and a very solid rating.

SEASON TO DATE through four full weeks (25 nights of official ratings and 3 nights of adjusted fast nationals), NBC is averaging a 2.79 rating in prime time (up 15% from the first four weeks last year).

CBS is second with a 2.31 (down 21%).

FOX is now down to a 2.10 (down 26%), thanks to very weak baseball postseason ratings.  (Through last Sunday, FOX was competitive with CBS for second place).

ABC is fourth with a 2.09 (down 13%).

Collectively, the four networks total a 9.29 rating (down 12% from 10.57 the first four weeks last fall).

Looking at the rest of the season, NBC will probably decline to a 2.1 on Sunday nights from January to May (from the 6.7 it is enjoying so far on Sundays).  That will bring NBC’s weekly average from around a 2.8 in the fall to a 2.0 after January.    All of that puts NBC on track for a 2.3 for the entire season.

CBS should lift three to four tenths in its season average with the Super Bowl alone — so CBS is on track for a 2.6 season.

FOX’s lift from American Idol in the second half should put FOX on a pace for a 2.3 rating for the entire season.

ABC generally stays on track throughout the entire season given its initial pace, so ABC should finish with a 2.1 rating for the season (barring a miracle midseason hit, which does not seem to be coming).

We’ll readjust these long term forecasts in the coming weeks, but the most interesting race to watch that is shaping up is the battle for second place between FOX and NBC for the full season.