It looks like NBC suffered its first Sunday defeat of the new season. The Sunday Night Football game certainly out-rated Game 4 of the World Series, but FOX built a commanding lead in the 7 pm hour alone with the controversial (and widely-viewed) end of the New York Giants-Dallas Cowboys NFL game. ABC has stabilized at a fairly weak 2.3 rating for the entire night, while CBS (without the benefit of a late afternoon NFL game this week) saw its prime time average sink below a 2 rating last night.
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SUNDAY
7-11 pm
|
Adult 18-49 Rating: Live+Same Day |
|
ShowbuzzDaily Forecast
(issued May 2012)
|
Actual Results Fall 2012 |
Last Year Same Night |
|
Sep-Dec Original Eps |
9.23 |
9.30 |
10.7 |
10.14 |
10.21 |
10.28 |
10.23.2011 |
|
NBC |
6.5 |
7.2 |
7.4 |
6.2 |
6.5 |
5.4 |
6.1* |
4.5 |
|
FOX |
4.6 (with 4pm NFL)2.3 (w/o 4pm NFL) |
— |
5.0 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
1.9 |
6.5* |
5.0 |
|
ABC |
2.7 |
— |
2.8 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.6 |
|
CBS |
2.2 (w/o 4pm NFL)3.3 (with 4pm NFL) |
— |
2.1 |
3.5 |
2.1 |
4.3 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
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Breaking news — Game 4 of the World Series did not set a record low as the first three games did. The decisive game last night scored a 4.2 in the preliminary fast nationals, which should rise to about a 4.9 in the official nationals. Still the third lowest Game 4 in history but not a complete embarrassment.
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WORLD SERIES Game 4 |
|
Last 10 Years |
AL |
NL |
18-49 Rating |
Millions Vwrs 2+ |
|
2003 |
NYY |
FLA |
7.5 |
20.9 |
|
2004 |
BOS |
STL |
10.0 |
28.8 |
|
2005 |
CHW |
HOU |
6.6 |
19.9 |
|
2006 |
DET |
STL |
5.1 |
16.1 |
|
2007 |
BOS |
COL |
7.1 |
20.9 |
|
2008 |
TB |
PHI |
5.1 |
15.5 |
|
2009 |
NYY |
PHI |
7.8 |
22.8 |
|
2010 |
TEX |
SF |
4.3 |
15.5 |
|
2011 |
TEX |
STL |
4.2 |
15.2 |
|
2012 |
DET |
SF |
4.9* |
19.2* |
|
Series winner bolded. Game 4 played on Wednesday through 2006; moved to Sunday in 2007
* — adjusted fast national ratings
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For a slightly broader overview, here is the trend for World Series Game 4 over major eras since the beginning of the Nielsen People Meter in 1987.
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WORLD SERIES Game 4 |
|
Averages by Era |
18-49 Rating |
Millions Vwrs 2+ |
|
1987-1993: Pre-Strike
|
11.1 |
29.4 |
|
1995-2002: Steroids |
8.6 |
23.1 |
|
2003-2011: No PEDs |
6.4 |
19.5 |
|
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FOX started prime time with a bang last night — we are estimating an 11.0 rating in the 7 pm hour for the conclusion of the NYG-DAL 4:25 pm NFL game (up from a 9.9 rating in the fast nationals, which always understate live events). The final World Series game at least was up over the last few years (but remember last night was an elimination game, while Game 4 in 2010 and 2011 were not). The best news for FOX is that they can move on from baseball and re-establish their entertainment schedule.
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FOX SUNDAY
|
Adult 18-49 Rating: Live+Same Day |
|
ShowbuzzDaily Forecast
(issued May 2012)
|
Actual Results Fall 2012 |
Last Year Same Night |
|
Sep-Dec Original Epswith 4pm NFL game |
9.30 |
10.7 |
10.14 |
10.21 |
10.28 |
10.23.2011 |
|
NFL Runover |
9.1 |
8.5 (NO-GB run over) |
1.3 (Simp rep) |
8.2 (NYG-SF) |
0.7 (MLB pregm) |
11.0 (NYG-DAL) |
8.7 (NFL) |
|
The OT |
6.1 |
2.2 |
4.4 (The OT) |
2.2 (MLB NLCS Game 6 STL-SF) |
5.8 (The OT) |
|
Simpsons |
3.5 |
3.8 |
3.1 |
2.1 (MLB NLCS Game 1 STL-SF) |
4.9* (WS G4 SF-DET) |
4.2 (WS G4 STL-TEX) |
|
Bob’s Burgers |
2.7 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
|
Family Guy |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
|
American Dad |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
|
|
|
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New Orleans-Denver was not a very close game, but it still should hit around a 7.2 rating (up from the 6.3 preliminary rating).
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NBC SUNDAY
|
Adult 18-49 Rating: Live+Same Day |
|
ShowbuzzDaily Forecast
(issued May 2012)
|
Actual Results Fall 2012 |
Last Year Same Night |
|
Sep-Dec Original Eps |
9.23 |
9.30 |
10.7 |
10.14 |
10.21 |
10.28 |
10.23.2011 |
|
FNIA |
2.3 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
2.9 |
2.3 |
1.1 |
2.5* |
1.9 |
|
SNF Pre Game |
4.4 |
3.7 |
4.7 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
3.6 |
4.3* |
3.3 |
|
Sunday Night Football |
7.7 |
8.7 (NE-BAL) |
9.0 (NYG-PHI) |
7.2 (SD-NO) |
7.7 (GB-HOU) |
6.7 (PIT-CIN) |
7.2* (NO-DEN) |
5.2 (IND-NO) |
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CBS goes into hiding in prime time when FOX has the national NFL doubleheader, and last night was a perfect example. This is what their Sunday night will look like each Sunday between January and May.
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CBS SUNDAY
|
Adult 18-49 Rating: Live+Same Day |
|
ShowbuzzDaily Forecast
(issued May 2012)
|
Actual Results Fall 2012 |
Last Year Same Night |
|
Sep-Dec Original Eps w/o 4pm NFL |
9.30 |
10.7 |
10.14 |
10.21 |
10.28 |
10.23.2011 |
|
NFL Runover |
— |
— |
8.8 (DEN-NE) |
— |
8.2 (NYJ-NE) |
|
— |
|
60 Minutes |
1.9 |
1.7 |
3.6 |
2.0 |
3.6 |
1.7 |
2.3 |
|
Amazing Race |
2.7 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
|
Good Wife |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
|
Mentalist |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1.6 |
2.1 |
— |
1.8 |
2.1 (CSI Miami) |
|
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ABC seems to have a reasonably good story at 8 and 9 pm with Once Upon a Time and Revenge — not as strong as we forecast but certainly solid. 666 Park Avenue continues to struggle, however, and does not show signs of gaining any traction.
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ABC SUNDAY
|
Adult 18-49 Rating: Live+Same Day |
|
ShowbuzzDaily Forecast
(issued May 2012)
|
Actual Results Fall 2012 |
Last Year Same Night |
|
Sep-Dec Original Eps |
9.30 |
10.7 |
10.14 |
10.21 |
10.28 |
10.23.2011 |
|
AFHV |
1.4 |
— |
1.5 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
|
Once Upon a Time |
3.9 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
4.0 |
|
Revenge |
3.0 |
3.2 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
2.7 |
3.0 (Desp Housewives) |
|
666 Park Avenue |
2.4 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.8 (Pan Am) |
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