The Sked: Thursday Week 5 — MLB Ratings on Track toward NHL

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World Series Game 2 is losing to the CBS Thursday lineup in the fast nationals (2.9 to 3.2 with Adults 18-49), but the game should rise to about a 3.3 in the official nationals when the Western live viewing is tabulated correctly.  This assumes a fast-to-official nationals increase of about 14%, similar to Game 1’s lift.  However, this would be a record low for a Game 2.  

Meanwhile, ABC took it on the chin with a sinking Last Resort and struggling Grey’s Anatomy, while NBC according to the fast nationals had the best Thursday of the year (all the way up to a 1.6!).  But that number will decline to a 1.4 or maybe a 1.5 when the official nationals come in (see below).

Thursday Night Football (Tampa Bay Bucs at Minnesota Vikings) on the NFL Network had some impact on the fast nationals, particularly on NBC.  The game aired locally in Minneapolis-St Paul (market rank #15, 1.5% of the US)  on NBC station KARE 11, where the game scored around a 26 household rating and 40 share locally.  In the fast nationals all of that Twin Cities viewing will be credited to NBC’s wobbly Thursday line-up until the official nationals exclude any pre-emptions like the game.  In Tampa-St Petersburg (market rank #14, 1.6% of the US), the game aired on independent station WMOR 12 so no network programming was impacted in that market. 

World Series Game 2 Track.  When Game 2 aired on Sunday nights, baseball would see a strong increase from Game 1 to Game 2.  There were many more people available to watch TV on Sunday than Saturday, and this was before Sunday Night Football dominated the night.  But since 2007, Game 2 has aired on Thursday.  What used to be a game that built ratings momentum for the Series is now a buzzkill.  The typical Thursday Game 2 drops about 10% in rating from Game 2.  Thursday is a very competitive night, plus Game 2 now has to face an NFL game anyway on Thursday nights.  We have adjusted the 2.9 fast national rating for Game 2 last night up to a 3.3 estimated official national, which would be the lowest rated Game 2 in history by a mile.

World Series Game 2 Trends over major eras since the beginning of the Nielsen People Meter in 1987.

FOX’s coverage of World Series Game 2 will rate maybe a tenth higher than a typical Thursday episode of X Factor.  Not much ratings gain for a whole lot of disruption to the schedule for X Factor and the rest of the schedule.  FOX has to be rooting for a four-game sweep by the Giants, ending the Series Sunday night.  The weather forecast for Detroit shows rain today (a travel day) and a 20% chance of rain Saturday (Game 3) and Sunday (Game 4).  The worst thing for FOX would be a worsening forecast over the weekend, possibly pushing a game to another night.  Not likely at this point, but that could change.

Elementary continues to edge down and is now well behind Mentalist‘s pace last fall.  The rest of the schedule, though, keeps CBS near the top on Thursday.

Last Resort turned in a 1.3 last night in the fast nationals, now nearly matching the track of long-gone Charlie’s Angels.  Grey’s Anatomy continues to be problematic.

NBC’s Thursday is updated below with adjusted fast national ratings, each show adjusted down one or two tenths based on the mammoth viewing levels on NBC’s station in Minneapolis for the NFL game (a 40+ share).  That viewing will be processed out of the official national ratings.  Last year’s comparisons are especially low because NBC aired repeats (oddly) against a declining asset like the World Series.