The Sked: Tuesday Ratings September 25

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Tuesday premiered on all four broadcast networks last night, with almost all schedules unveiled entirely intact.  CBS is in first place with a 3.3 preliminary Adult 18-49 rating from 8-11 pm, exactly on target according to our ShowbuzzDaily fourth quarter estimates.

FOX opened a little below our fall forecast, while NBC (which premiered a week early last Tuesday) is still riding above our estimate (thanks mostly to The Voice).  However, NBC should continue to cool a bit as The Voice settles in, with its Tuesday average headed for our 2.4 forecast in the coming weeks.  FOX will probably drop to around a 2.4 in the next few weeks, fighting for second place with NBC and failing to hit our 2.7 fall forecast on Tuesday.

ABC opened below our fourth-place forecast rating and could drift down from here.

Ever reliable, NCIS and NCIS: Los Angeles premiered around their expected numbers and gave a great platform for Vegas to open.  The 2.5 premiere for the Las Vegas period piece is below our full fall forecast for the show, but unlike dramas on most other networks (which open very big then settle down), this CBS drama could actually build a bit over the course of the season, maybe up to a 2.6 or even the predicted 2.7 eventually.

FOX double pumped original New Girl episodes at 8:00 and 9:00 pm last night (the 8 pm New Girl also scored a 2.7 last night).  It didn’t really help Ben & Kate — if it can only do a 2.0 after a decent 2.7 lead-in, what until the FOX-favorite/ audience-indifferent Raising Hope arrives at 8:00 next week.  Mindy Project certainly looks stronger than Ben & Kate, but the entire FOX 9 pm hour seems a little precious and underwhelming.  We bought the hype back in the spring and way over-estimated the potential of the hour.

NBC Tuesday remains a tale of two halves of the night.  8:00-9:30 is settling down but in fine shape, while 9:30-11:00 is an audience-free zone.  We very much underestimated Voice and Go On, especially in the early going.  Both shows probably settle a few tenths above our forecast.  But The New Normal is headed for the high-1 rating range in a week or two, exactly as we forecast.  And Parenthood would do that 1.8 rating if it had a 5 rating in front of it or if a 0.3 CW show was its lead-in.

The fairly disappointing week at ABC continues.  Dancing is off to an awful start, and Private Practice will probably be under a 2 rating nearly every week.  Don’t look for a turnaround next week when the entire Tuesday schedule is up and running — Happy Endings and Don’t Trust the B– in Apt 23 will be lucky to stay above the 2 rating we have predicted.