September 13, 2011


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Written by: Mitch Salem
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>TUESDAYS this fall officially start the night of September 20, but we get a sneak peak at the night tonight with the early premieres of three shows:  Parenthood on NBC and 90210 and Ringer on The CW.  Click “read more” to see a preview of Tuesday nights, including updated ratings projections for each time period.

We have reduced the ratings estimates for ABC Tuesday this fall, particularly the 8 pm comedy hour featuring Tim Allen’s Last Man Standing (8:00-8:30) and Man Up! (8:30-9:00).  Although the two comedies don’t premiere until mid-October, the promotion for the Last Man anchor has been unusually light — even for a late premiere.  In addition, the show has already taken an extra hiatus week (to fix scripts before shooting the episode in front of a live audience) — never a good sign.  We have also reduced the rating for the Dancing with the Stars results show a touch, as we did on Monday.  CBS ratings estimates remain unchanged, while on NBC we have raised Parenthood‘s projection a tick because of solid and fairly plentiful promotion (for a returning show) in recent programs, including highly-rated NFL regular season football games.  Ratings projections for FOX have been lowered a bit because we just don’t feel as much heat on the night.  Where do all the shaved tenths of ratings points go?  We do not see them landing on other broadcast networks — they will probably scatter to the dozens of significant choices on cable.

An important note:  the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December).  Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six.  The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right.  By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall — and the entire season — will sort out. 

TUESDAY FALL 2011   Estimates         Episode Rating     
                    May   Sep   #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
 800 Last Man Stand 2.7   2.4   10/11
 830 Man Up         2.3   2.1   10/18
 900 Dancing        3.2   3.1
1000 Body of Proof  2.4   2.4   9/20 
 800 NCIS           3.9   3.9   9/20
 900 NCIS LA        3.5   3.5   9/20
1000 Unforgettable  2.8   2.8   9/20
 800 Biggest Loser  2.3   2.3   9/20
 900 Biggest Loser  2.7   2.7   9/20
1000 Parenthood     2.2   2.3   9/13
 800 Glee           4.1   4.0   9/20  
 830 New Girl       2.9   2.8   9/20
 900 Raising Hope   2.7   2.6   9/20

 800 90210          n/a   n/a   9/13
 900 Ringer         n/a   n/a   9/13


Click below to read the UPDATED RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week:

                      MON      TUE      WED      THU      FRI      SAT      SUN     

Click below to read the ORIGINAL RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week (from May):  

                      MON      TUE      WED      THU      FRI      SAT      SUN      FULL WEEK

Click below to find out what to watch this fall:

                      MON      TUE      WED      THU       FRI      WEEKEND

About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."