May 25, 2011

THE SKED: Wednesday Ratings Projections — UPDATED

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Written by: Mitch Salem
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A few notes: these projections are for original episodes (no repeats) aired in the 4th quarter of 2011.  Series premieres will likely be .3-.4 higher, thanks to network marketing pushes, and then tend to go down over time.  We’ll be updating the numbers after we see full pilots and also as we get a feel for the networks’ summer promotional campaigns.  

ABC.  Suburgatory should be just about even with last Fall’s Better With You.  Similarly, Happy Endings is pretty much a wash with Cougar TownRevenge will be significantly better than last Fall’s disastrous The Whole Truth but still last in the time period. 

CBS.  CSI just about even with last Fall’s Defenders, and somewhat ahead of SVU in the aging franchise battle.  For the night, CBS is even with last year thanks to stability from 8-10 pm.

NBC (Updated).  The Up All Night/Free Agents combo is only slightly above last Fall’s flop Undercovers, and we don’t see Harry’s Law helping SVU (at least in 18-49s; its less-valuable older audience may raise Total Viewers).  SVU‘s rating has been lowered a bit from the original estimate because of Chris Meloni’s departure from the show.  If his replacement is fantastic, we might revise the SVU number back upward, but history tells us changes in original casting usually has a negative effect.  CSI (already having weathered its lead cast changes) is the main beneficiary of any lost NBC audience in the time period. 
FOX.  X Factor should be a solid improvement for FOX Wednesday, although I Hate My Teenage Daughter will give back some of those gains.  We foresee many two-hour X-Factor episodes after the network is done with baseball.
Overall, not much difference in terms of network placement in the Wednesday nightly averages.
Click below to read about the other nights of the week:
                      MON      TUE      WED      THU      FRI      SAT      SUN      FULL WEEK

Click below to find out what to watch this fall:

                      MON      TUE      WED      THU       FRI      WEEKEND

About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on and In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."