OPENINGS: STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI (Lucasfilm/Disney) had an excellent Saturday for a blockbuster of its size, dropping 39% from Friday, where The Force Awakens had fallen 43%. That cemented Last Jedi as the 2nd-highest opening in US history at $220M (down 11% from Force Awakens)–and that studio estimate may even be a tad conservative, because it assumes a 20% Sunday drop where Force Awakens lost just 11%. In any case, Last Jedi is on track to beat Avatar‘s $760.5M and become the #2 film in US box office history. The overseas results are similarly huge, but slightly more downbeat in that Last Jedi‘s $230M opening is a steeper 23% below Force Awakens‘ $281M. (Neither film’s opening weekend included China.) This is a small disappointment for Disney, which had hoped to build the franchise’s international base after Force Awakens earned 55% of its worldwide total outside the US and Rogue One‘s worldwide split was 50/50. (By way of comparison, the overseas number was 59% for The Avengers, 61% for Jurassic World, and 73% for Avatar.) Of course, this is a very high-class problem to have, since even at its current proportion, Last Jedi should be one of the Top 5 films in history worldwide.
FERDINAND (Blue Sky/20th) hoped to pick up the families with children too young for the PG-13 Last Jedi, but its $13.3M start was below the $14.3M for Alvin & the Chipmunks: The Road Chip, which ran the same strategy against Force Awakens. Ferdinand may leg it to $80M by the end of the holidays, but that’s still not much for a film that reportedly cost about $225M for production and marketing. Overseas, it had a $6.2M start in 18 territories.
WONDER WHEEL (Amazon) inched into what will probably be a short stay in wide release, expanding to 536 theatres. Its $900 per-theatre average was awful, and it’s likely to end up in the US at the $4M level of Woody Allen’s Irrational Man. (Although even that film, it should be noted, earned $23.4M overseas, so it may have broken even.)
HOLDOVERS: COCO (Pixar/Disney) was dented by 46% with the arrival of Ferdinand, for a $10M weekend (Moana dropped only 31% on its parallel weekend), and it should reach $220M in the US with healthy holiday business. Overseas, it’s at $297.4M after a $27.4M weekend in only 36 markets, so there’s plenty of upside to come.
WONDER (Participant/Walden/Lionsgate) had one of the best holds in the Top 10, down 36% to $5.4M, and if it can hold on to its theatres through the holidays, it might reach $135M. It’s now in 60 overseas territories, and it has $44.4M after a $9.4M weekend.
JUSTICE LEAGUE (RatPac/DC/Warners) fell 57% to $4.2M, and might get to $235M in the US, far from where it was expected to land. Internationally, it had a $5.3M weekend and is at $414.5M. It may reach $675M worldwide, which would probably put it just on the edge of breakeven, but unquestionably a massive disappointment.
DADDY’S HOME 2 (Paramount) held well in its 6th weekend, down 36% to $3.8M, and possibly on track for $115M in the US. Overseas, it had a $5.9M weekend in 59 markets and has totaled $61M. It’s running well below the $150.4M/$92.4M pace of the first Daddy’s Home.
The arrival of Last Jedi hit its studio stablemate THOR: RAGNAROK (Marvel/Disney) with a 53% weekend rop to $3M, although it will still reach for $320M in the US. It’s at $535.4M overseas, but it may not get past the $863.6M worldwide total of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, which would leave it at #7 among Marvel entries.
THE DISASTER ARTIST (A24) is proving to be extremely front-loaded. Despite growing its theatre count by 20%, it fell 59% to $2.6M, and may start limping before the holidays are over, as it hopes for some love in the Comedy/Musical categories at the Golden Globes in January.
MURDER ON THE ORIENT EXPRESS (20th) fell 52% to $2.5M, and may reach $110M in the US. It’s a smash overseas, though, where it’s at $200.7M after a $10.8M weekend in 52 markets.
LADY BIRD (A24) slashed its theatre count by 39%, and that’s also the percentage drop for the weekend (to $2.1M), meaning it held steady on a per-theatre basis with a $2200 average. 3 BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI (Fox Searchlight) similarly cut its theatre count by 42%, and it too held its per-theatre average, down 43% for the weekend to $1.6M. Both films are waiting for the next wave of awards to roll in.
For completists, last weekend’s flop JUST GETTING STARTED (Broad Green) plunged 69% to under $1M, and can only hope to reach $10M in the US.
LIMITED RELEASE: No new openings, but several key expansions this weekend. THE SHAPE OF WATER (Fox Searchlight) widened to 158 theatres with an $11K average, which is better than the $7200 that Moonlight averaged at 176. DARKEST HOUR (Focus/Universal) averaged $10K, but at just 84 theatres, considerably below Moonlight‘s $15K at 83. CALL ME BY YOUR NAME (Sony Classics) continued its slow path forward, now at 30 theatres, where it averaged $16K, half the $32K average Lady Bird had at 37. I, TONYA (Neon) added 1 theatre for a total of 5, and its $35K average was down heavily from last week’s $66K.
NEXT WEEKEND: The holiday rush has arrived. It begins on Wednesday with the arrivals of THE GREATEST SHOWMAN (20th) and JUMANJI: WELCOME TO THE JUNGLE (Columbia/Sony), and continues on Friday with DOWNSIZING (Paramount), FATHER FIGURES (Warners) and PITCH PERFECT 2 (Universal), as well as the limited releases of THE POST (20th), HAPPY END (Sony Classics) and HOSTILES (Entertainment Studios).
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