The Sked: Wednesday September 26 Ratings

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The networks premiered their Wednesday nights last night (mostly), and they finished in the order we forecast back in May (FOX #1, CBS and ABC fighting for #2, and NBC a distant #4).  But three of the four networks are well below our predicted rating levels and well below the ratings from the Wednesday premiere night last fall.  A year ago, the four networks added up to a 13.9 rating with Adults 18-49 on the first Wednesday in prime time.  Last night, the four broadcast networks combined for a 10.9 rating, down 22% in one year.  Yikes.

FOX won the night last night with week two of The X Factor, but the 3.3 rating last night compares to a 4.1 for the second Wednesday telecast in 2011.  If X Factor goes up to a 3.4 in the official nationals later today, the episode will still be down a hefty 17% from the same night last year.  A tough slog is ahead for FOX on Wednesday night if X Factor continues to erode.

CBS did about what we expected at 8 and 10 pm, but Criminal Minds at 9 pm was significantly below our forecast (six tenths of a rating point below or 16% under forecast).  What’s worse, CBS is down 17% from the same night last year, with Criminal Minds down a tough 24% and CSI down 22%.  Survivor is down a more manageable 6%.

ABC did not debut Nashville or premiere Suburgatory last night so we won’t have a complete picture of their Wednesday performance until next week.  But The Middle opened about where we expected (down about 10% from the same night last year — one hour premiere episodes from 8-9 pm both this year and last).  Modern Family (also a one-hour season premiere this fall and last) was also 10% off last year’s pace.  The comedy usually settles down quickly in the first few weeks of the season — so the forecast 5.0 rating for the entire fourth quarter is still reasonable.  The Neighbors had a special 9:30 premiere before moving to 8:30 when Suburgatory premieres.  That should be the last rating with a 3 in front of it ever.  Week two should be about a 2.5, and week three should be around a 2.2, given the quality of the show.  (The 2.8 forecast for The Neighbors in May was based on the originally-announced 9:30 time period.  A 2.3 is more realistic for the full fourth quarter at 8:30 pm).

NBC is on the fourth place track on Wednesday nights that we forecast last May.  Sunday-Tuesday are very good to NBC in the fall, but Wednesday-Saturday is a brutal four-day stretch with 1.5-rated shows as far as the eye can see.  Animal Practice premiered in its regular time period to an abysmal 1.4 — worse than we forecast and down 42% from Up All Night on the same night last year.  Guys with Kids actually beat our meager forecast and is 23% (three tenths of a rating point) above the Free Agents ratings bar of utter failure.  Give it a few weeks: Guys with Kids will be below a 1.5 regularly.  SVU had an okay two-hour premiere, building above a 2 rating.  Going forward a 1.9 is possible on a weekly basis, putting it on a track to beat our conservative forecast for it at 9 pm.  We’ll see about Chicago Fire in two weeks.  Nothing is sparking much interest on Wednesdays, and we would be very surprised if its the show that breaks out on the night.