The Sked: Wednesday Week Three

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Two new shows premiered last night, both at 10 pm: Nashville (2.8 Adult 18-49 rating on ABC) and Chicago Fire (1.9 on NBC).  More on the individual shows below in the network sections, but looking at the networks’ overall nightly performance, ABC had a very good night (thanks to two original Modern Family episodes to set the table for a decent Nashville premiere).  ABC’s 3.3 rating from 8-11 pm is challenging FOX’s 3.4, and there could be tie depending on the rounding in the official nationals (although I am betting FOX will stay narrowly in the lead).  CBS remains at an okay 2.7 rating, while NBC slips further behind on this Voice-less night, down to a 1.7 rating across the evening.

ABC perked up a touch at 8 pm (up a few tenths with The Middle), and although the 9 pm Modern Family was not extraordinary (4.7), the 9:30 original (4.9) will be one of the highest ratings in that half hour all season.  That terrific lead-in allowed the much anticipated Nashville to debut to a 2.8 rating, below the 3.4 debut for Revenge on 9.21.2011 (with a 6.1 lead-in from Modern Family).  Most dramas decline in the second or third weeks, so Nashville could be very much on track to hit our 2.5 estimate released back in May.  Solid for a 10 pm show but not huge.

NBC aired Animal Practice (down to a terrible 1.1) is begging to be cancelled.  The show is pretty weak creatively and the ratings are atrocious, not much room for debate here.   Chicago Fire (1.9 debut) actually grew one tenth from its SVU lead-in, but let’s face it a 1.9 is still pretty soft considering the odds are it will decline a few tenths at least in the next few weeks.  It might not sink to our 1.5 forecast for the entire fall, but a 1.6 is in sight.  NBC needed more hope on this troubled night.

FOX scored a 3.4 in the preliminary fast nationals for X Factor, most likely rising to a 3.5 in the official nationals and solidifying first place on the night.

Survivor looked pretty weak last night, but it probably will bounce back in the next few weeks — nothing to get alarmed about yet.  The 9-11 dramas are were they are, much lower than last year and badly lagging our forecast at 9 pm.