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October 7, 2011
 

The Sked: The Skinny on the Nation’s TV Markets

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Written by: Mitch Salem
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With all due respect to your geography class, the United States is really not made up of 50 states and the District of Columbia.  Readers of this website know it is a patchwork of 210 television markets, also known as Designated Market Areas (DMAs).  Each county in the nation is assigned to a DMA based on the residents’ viewing habits, and DMAs often cross state lines.    
Once a year Nielsen (which measures local in addition to national television ratings) estimates the size of each market, and this season they range from #1 New York (with 7,387,810 homes) all the way down to tiny #210 Glendive, Montana (with 4,180 homes).  Exactly in the middle is #105 Lincoln, Nebraska (with 280,310 homes).  With market size disparity like that, it is no surprise that:
Three in ten Americans live in the top 10 markets
Half live in the top 25 markets
Eight in ten live in the top 75 markets 
Why are TV markets important?  Knowing the size of markets and their growth rate is critical when analyzing national ratings, awarding or moving sports franchises, evaluating the performance of sporting events on television, developing strategies for political campaigns and advertising, and so on.  For example, if a network program is pre-empted in five local markets, it is critical to know which markets are not broadcasting a show.   

The Top 25.  The chart below lists the top 25 DMAs, displaying their size (the number of households with television in the area), growth (percent change over a ten-year period since 2001-02), and momentum (the change in market ranking in ten years).  Values in red are indications of slow growth, while values in blue indicate rapid growth.  Black values are average.

Dallas-Ft Worth (#5) has moved up two spots in the rankings in a decade, but the Big-D will have to ratchet up the growth even more to catch the much larger Philadelphia (extremely unlikely).  The top four markets are so large their ranking has not changed in decades despite very sluggish growth. 

TOP 25 TV MARKETS      2011-12    Growth   Ranking
                      Households  Since    Change
                      (millions)   2001    vs 2001
     1  New York         7.388     + 1%
     2  Los Angeles      5.570     + 5%
     3  Chicago          3.493     + 4%
     4  Philadelphia     2.993     + 7%
     5  Dallas           2.571     +17%      +2
     6  San Francisco    2.507     + 3%      -1
     7  Boston           2.380     + 3%      -1
     8  Washington DC    2.360     +11%
     9  Atlanta          2.293     +15%
    10  Houston          2.185     +19%      +1
    11  Detroit          1.843     – 2%      -1
    12  Seattle          1.812     +10%
    13  Phoenix          1.811     +18%      +3
    14  Tampa            1.788     +14%
    15  Minneapolis      1.722     + 9%      -2
    16  Miami            1.584     + 2%      -1
    17  Denver           1.549     +12%      +1
    18  Cleveland        1.514     + 0%      -1
    19  Orlando          1.465     +24%      +1
    20  Sacramento       1.389     +13%      -1
    21  St Louis         1.254     +10%      +1
    22  Portland         1.190     +11%      +1
    23  Pittsburgh       1.171     + 2%      -2
    24  Raleigh-Durham   1.143     +22%      +5
    25  Charlotte        1.141     +20%      +2

Further, Phoenix (#13) is not done growing.  A decade ago Phoenix was #16, and it could very soon be knocking on the door of the top 10 because it is bunched up against similar-sized markets like Seattle and Detroit.  In fact, the Detroit (#11) area has the dubious distinction of being the only top 50 market to decline in population in the last decade.

North Carolina is the other high growth area (although it gets much less attention than the Southwest).  Raleigh-Durham (#24) and Charlotte (#25) have busted into the top 25 (with Raleigh vaulting five places in ten years), and like Phoenix they are very close in size to the markets immediately above them.  They should be Top 20 markets in a few seasons.          


MID-SIZED MARKETS ON THE RISE.  In addition to the large-market growth stories, there are some spectacular examples from the rest of the top 75 markets.  Everyone would cite Las Vegas, which has risen from #51 ten years ago to #40 today, fueled by a 27% jump in market size over that period.  But an even bigger example is Ft. Myers-Naples, Florida, which has vaulted 14 places from #76 to #62 as a result of a 31% jump in the number of households in ten years.  Honorable mention goes to Austin (up seven places in the ranking and up 24%).  Here is a list of top gainers from markets 26-75 since 2001.



                         HHs MM   Growth   Rank Chg
    40  Las Vegas         .737     +27%      +11
    41  Harrisburg PA     .729     +18%      +5
    44  Albuquerque       .713     +17%      +4
    47  Austin            .687     +24%      +7
    50  Jacksonville FL   .670     +19%      +3
    60  Mobile-Pensacola  .528     +12%      +3
    62  Ft Myers-Naples   .504     +31%      +14
    70  Tucson            .442     +13%      +3
    73  Spokane           .427     +12%      +5

MID-SIZED MARKETS ON THE DECLINE.  On the flip side, some parts of the country stagnate or even drop in population (like Detroit).  The biggest loser in the mid-markets is New Orleans, which has tumbled nine spots on the ranking chart (from #43 to #52), sporting a 1% decline in population for the entire market since 2001.  Clearly, Hurricane Katrina was a huge reason for this exodus.  Without a category five hurricane or other natural calamity, Memphis dropped a similar eight spots (from #41 to #49), and hard scrabble Charleston, West Virginia declined a full 3% in population since 2001. 

                         HHs MM   Growth   Rank Chg
    27  Baltimore        1.097     + 7%      -3
    35  Cincinnati        .896     + 7%      -3
    42  Grand Rapids      .722     + 3%      -4
    49  Memphis           .670     + 2%      -8
    51  Buffalo           .645     + 5%      -4
    52  New Orleans       .644     – 1%      -9
    53  Providence        .620     + 3%      -4
    63  Dayton            .494     + 0%      -3
    65  Charleston WV     .465     – 3%      -4
    68  Flint-Saginaw     .452     + 0%      -4
    74  Toledo            .426     + 2%      -6

Read more about demographics and TV ratings here:  Factoids from Nielsen’s “Universe Estimates” and Time Zones & Their Impact on Ratings and Programming.

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About the Author

Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on screened.com and the-burg.com. In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."
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