All this week, we’ve been giving you our predicted fall network ratings for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Sunday. Let’s wind up our week of forecasts with an overview of how the fall is likely to go for each of the networks in summary. We don’t see any precipitous drops, although we also don’t expect any of the networks to recapture lost ground. Note that these comparisons are strictly fall-to-fall, so they don’t reflect, for example, American Idol for FOX, since it airs only in midseason
ABC: Despite being in last place during the 2012-13 broadcast season, ABC should be fairly stable next fall, with just a 3% drop from fall 2013. That’s fueled mostly by the rise of SCANDAL on Thursdays, giving the night a healthy 10% bump. Sundays will be ugly due to the declines in ONCE UPON A TIME and REVENGE (and the unlikelihood of the new BETRAYAL helping much), while the all-new Tuesdays will result in minimal change.
NBC: The Peacock is in such a dreadful state that its mild 3% decline next fall will be mostly due to a sharp uptick of 22% on Thursday–even though we still see the network mired in last place on that night. None of its Thursday shows will win its timeslot, but they should do better than the bottom-dwelling line-up from last fall. Those gains are offset by drops on Monday (where last fall had the opening punch of Revolution, before it declined in the spring) and Saturday.
CBS: We see a 4% drop for CBS overall, due in part to our lack of belief in the new 4-sitcom Thursday, particularly the substitution of THE MILLERS for 2 1/2 MEN at 8:30PM. The network should also fall on Monday, with WE ARE MEN looking weak, and Saturday. However, the move of PERSON OF INTEREST to Tuesday should give that night a significant boost.
FOX: The network had an awful spring, and we don’t see things getting better with a 7% drop in the fall. Partly that’s due to the fact that FOX is barely programming Fridays, with JUNIOR MASTERCHEF and SLEEPY HOLLOW reruns giving way to the weak sitcoms RAISING HOPE and ENLISTED, resulting in a 19% plunge. THE X FACTOR is also due for declines on Wednesday and Thursday. On the plus side, we think the first runs of Sleepy Hollow will be a big step up from last fall’s disastrous The Mob Doctor.
We’ll be updating all these numbers once we’ve had a chance to digest the full network pilots (reviews of those will begin next week), and get a closer look at the summer marketing campaigns. Meanwhile, what do you think? Will any of the networks do better or worse than we foresee?
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