Wednesday Box Office: “Hobbit” Opens Big, But…

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THE HOBBIT:  THE BATTLE OF THE FIVE ARMIES (New Line/MGM/Warners) opened on Wednesday to $24.5M, which is both the 12th-highest opening Wednesday ever (and 3rd-highest in December) and the lowest opening day for a Peter Jackson Tolkien adaptation since The Fellowship of the Ring ($18.2M) back in 2001.  The Armies start was below the Wednesday opening days of The Two Towers ($26.2M) and Return of the King ($34.5M), as well as the Friday launches for An Unexpected Journey ($37.1M) and The Desolation of Smaug ($31.2M).  ]

If Armies has the same 5-day trajectory as Fellowship, it could reach $88M by Sunday, and the multiple would even be higher if it follows the pattern of Two Towers or Return of the King.  However, a potentially worrisome sign is that Armies earned over 45% of its opening day box office on Tuesday night with $11.2M.  That may suggest extreme frontloading (the Thursday night percentages for the other Hobbit titles were 35% for Unexpected Journey and 28% for Desolation of Smaug), akin to the 47% for the final Harry Potter and the 44% for the Wednesday-opening Twilight:  Eclipse.  If Armies were to be as front-loaded as the latter, it would only reach $56.3M by Sunday.  Eclipse plunged 65% on its 2d day of release, and Fellowship of the Ring fell only 47%, so we’ll have a better idea tomorrow of where Armies stands.