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The magic number for early weekday box office (Monday-Tuesday combined) is 20% of the opening weekend (and 10% of the opening weekend on Monday), indicators of better than average long-term playability. Based on Monday’s numbers, Fast Five is headed for a slightly worse than normal decline in weekend two (despite being the only movie doing any business Monday).
On its first Monday in release (May 2), Fast Five averaged $6.2 million, or 7% of the film’s opening weekend tally. This percentage falls short on the Monday gold standard (10%) but is completely in line with the Monday percentage for Fast and Furious (both percentages are 7.2%, more specifically). Fast and Furious went on to drop 62% in the second weekend (worse than the average film), and we can expect a similar track for Fast Five.
Read on after the jump.
First Monday-Tuesday of Release
May 2, 2011 Mon-Tue % of Opening
(millions)
Fast Five (Uni) $6.2 7.2%
Comparison for Fast Five
Apr 6, 2009
Fast and Furious $5.1 7.2%
Fast Five was the only movie to gross over $1 million on Monday. The Monday numbers are not very telling for very-low grossing movies such as Prom and Hoodwinked Too!, neither of which will hang around theaters much longer anyway.
Long-term playability (very low second weekend decline, strong weekday numbers, the first full week beating the first weekend) are indications of the exceptional word of mouth that can translate to strong revenue on post-theater “windows”. (For a discussion of movie windows such as pay-per-view, DVD, online, pay cable, cable television and broadcast television, see ShowbuzzDaily Basics.)
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About the Author
Mitch Salem
MITCH SALEM has worked on the business side of the entertainment industry for 20 years, as a senior business affairs executive and attorney for such companies as NBC, ABC, USA, Syfy, Bravo, and BermanBraun Productions, and before that, at the NY law firm of Weil, Gotshal & Manges. During all that, he has more or less constantly been going to the movies and watching TV, and writing about both since the 1980s. His film reviews also currently appear on screened.com and the-burg.com. In addition, he is co-writer of an episode of the television series "Felicity."
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