Weekend #31 of 2014 is looking like $150 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 16%from the norm for this weekend and the first up weekend since June 13-15.
Opening at around 3,800 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Guardians of the Galaxy from Disney and Marvel should average $18,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $71.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are a very strong 93% positive so far. Guardians of the Galaxy is on track for around $210 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $400 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $610 million.
Opening at 2,466 theaters Friday, Get on Up from Universal should average $7,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $17.5 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is a very solid 86% positive so far. The story of James Brown (starring 42‘s Chadwick Boseman) is on track for around $57 million domestic, with a potential for another $8 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $65 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND August 1-3, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | PG13 | 93% | 71.0 | 210 | |
| Get On Up | Uni | PG13 | 86% | 17.5 | 57 | |
Lucy and Hercules are going to be the most significant holdovers, but well below the #1 overall Guardians of the Galaxy.
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RETURNING FILMS August 1-3, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Lucy | Uni | -61% | 17.0 | 128 | |
| Hercules | Par | -59% | 12.3 | 89 | |
| Dawn of the Planet of the Apes | Fox | -50% | 8.4 | 229 | |
| Planes: Fire & Rescue | Dis | -40% | 5.8 | 59 | |
| The Purge: Anarchy | Uni | -56% | 4.7 | 72 | |
| Sex Tape | Sony | -51% | 3.0 | 38 | |
| Boyhood | IFC | +59% | 2.8 | n/a | |
| A Most Wanted Man | Road | +4% | 2.8 | n/a | |
| And So It Goes | Clar | -42% | 2.7 | 9 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $129 million total, ranking 24th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $123 million (while 2012 was $114 million, 2011 was $158 million and 2010 was $123 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very decent $150 million, up 16% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 22% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
8.2.2013
The Smurfs 2 Sony PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $28 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $63 Actual: $71
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $277
2 Guns Uni R Denzel Washington Mark Wahlberg
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $34 Actual: $27
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $77 Actual: $76
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $56
8.3.2012
Total Recall SONY PG13 Colin Farrell Kate Beckinsale
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $60 Actual: $59
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $140
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days FOX PG Zachary Gordon Devon Bostick
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $49
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $28
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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