Articles

July 30, 2014
 

Weekend Box Office Forecast AUGUST 1-3

Weekend #31 of 2014 is looking like $150 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 16%from the norm for this weekend and the first up weekend since June 13-15.  

Opening at around 3,800 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Guardians of the Galaxy from Disney and Marvel should average $18,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $71.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are a very strong 93% positive so far. Guardians of the Galaxy is on track for around $210 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross about $400 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $610 million.

Opening at 2,466 theaters Friday, Get on Up from Universal should average $7,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $17.5 million opening weekend). Critical sentiment is a very solid 86% positive so far. The story of James Brown (starring 42‘s Chadwick Boseman) is on track for around $57 million domestic, with a potential for another $8 million total overseas. Worldwide box office target: $65 million.  

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

August 1-3, 2014

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Guardians of the Galaxy Dis PG13 93% 71.0 210
Get On Up Uni PG13 86% 17.5 57
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

 

Lucy and Hercules are going to be the most significant holdovers, but well below the #1 overall Guardians of the Galaxy.

RETURNING FILMS

August 1-3, 2014

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Lucy Uni -61% 17.0 128
Hercules Par -59% 12.3 89
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Fox -50% 8.4 229
Planes: Fire & Rescue Dis -40% 5.8 59
The Purge: Anarchy Uni -56% 4.7 72
Sex Tape Sony -51% 3.0 38
Boyhood IFC +59% 2.8 n/a
A Most Wanted Man Road +4% 2.8 n/a
And So It Goes Clar -42% 2.7 9

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $129 million total, ranking 24th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $123 million (while 2012 was $114 million, 2011 was $158 million and 2010 was $123 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very decent $150 million, up 16% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 22% from the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years

8.2.2013

The Smurfs 2 Sony PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $28 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $63 Actual: $71
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $277

2 Guns Uni R Denzel Washington Mark Wahlberg
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $34 Actual: $27
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $77 Actual: $76
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $56

8.3.2012

Total Recall SONY PG13 Colin Farrell Kate Beckinsale
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $60 Actual: $59
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $140

Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days FOX PG Zachary Gordon Devon Bostick
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $52 Actual: $49
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $28

 

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.