This weekend is looking very strong: over $150 million for the top 12 films Friday-Sunday, up 22% from a typical second weekend in November. James Bond’s latest adventure starring Daniel Craig is eagerly awaited by audiences and well-reviewed by critics — this will be potent. Previewing Friday at around a dozen theaters, Lincoln starring Daniel Day-Lewis and directed by Steven Spielberg will really get going next weekend.
Opening at around 3,400 theaters Friday, Skyfall from Sony should average an excellent $23,800 per theater (for an $81.0 million opening weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,300 per theater.] Critics are very receptive so far (92% positive at RottenTomatoes). We are projecting the latest 007 film will hit $189 million domestic and $610 million worldwide.
| NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND | ($ millions) | |||||
| November 9-11, 2012 | Critics Positive | Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||
| Skyfall | Sony | PG13 | 92% | 81.0 | 189 | |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Recent James Bond Films:
Quantum of Solace Nov 2008 $67.5 million domestic opening, $168.4 million domestic gross, $586.1 million worldwide
Casino Royale Nov 2006 $40.8 million domestic opening, $167.4 million domestic gross, $594.2 million worldwide
Die Another Day Nov 2002 $47.1 million domestic opening, $160.9 million domestic gross, $431.9 million worldwide
The World Is Not Enough Nov 1999 $35.5 million domestic opening, $126.9 million domestic gross, $361.8 million worldwide
*Daniel Craig as 007 since 2006; Pierce Brosnan before.
Solid second weekends from Wreck-It Ralph and Flight will make for a weekend that serves multiple demographic groups. Men for Skyfall, families for Wreck-It Ralph and older movie fans for Flight.
| RETURNING FILMS | ($ millions) | ||||
| November 9-11, 2012 | Change vs Last Weekend | Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||
| Wreck-It Ralph | Dis | -37% | 30.7 | 171 | |
| Flight | Par | -39% | 15.2 | 78 | |
| Argo | WB | -29% | 7.2 | 103 | |
| Man with the Iron Fists | Uni | -57% | 3.4 | 21 | |
| Taken 2 | Fox | -45% | 3.3 | 139 | |
| Hotel Transylvania | Sony | -40% | 2.7 | 150 | |
| Cloud Atlas | WB | -50% | 2.7 | 32 | |
| Paranormal Activity 4 | Par | -53% | 2.0 | 53 | |
| Here Comes the Boom | Sony | -43% | 2.0 | 43 | |
| Pitch Perfect | Uni | -35% | 2.0 | 66 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in this comparable weekend have averaged $126 million total, ranking 24th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $126 million (while 2010’s comparable weekend was $112 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very good $154 million, up 22% from the average comparable weekend over the past four years and up 22% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11.11.11
Jack and Jill SONY PG Adam Sandler Katie Holmes
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $60 Actual: $74
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $76
Immortals REL R Henry Cavill Stephen Dorff
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $21 Actual: $32
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $78 Actual: $83
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $143
J. Edgar WB R Leonardo DiCaprio Naomi Watts
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $34 Actual: $37
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $42
11.12.10
Unstoppable FOX PG13 Denzel Washington Chris Pine
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $23
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $77 Actual: $81
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $86
Skyline UNI PG13 Eric Balfour Scottie Thompson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $46
Morning Glory PAR PG13 Harrison Ford Rachel McAdams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $33 Actual: $31
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $28
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
###
About the Author
