Weekend #3 of 2015 is looking like $134 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up from the norm for this weekend but down from the same weekend last year.
Opening at around 3,200 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), American Sniper from Warner Brothers should average a solid $8,800 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $28.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Across the four-day holiday weekend, the film should gross $34.5 million in North America. In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging a positive but not over-the-top 74% positive. American Sniper is on track for around $95 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $35 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $130 million.
Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday, The Wedding Ringer from Sony/Screen Gems should average a similar $8,400 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $24.0 million opening weekend). Across the four-day MLK weekend, the film should bring in $29.5 million. No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. The Wedding Ringer is on track for around $70 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $15 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $85 million.
Opening at about 3,000 theaters Friday, Paddington from Weinstein Company should average $5,700 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $17.0 million opening weekend). The film should total $21.5 million domestic for the Friday-Monday long weekend. In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging a near universal 96% positive (and is currently a perfect 100% positive with top critics). Paddington is on track for around $80 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in another $140 million (it is already up to $122.2 million overseas, primarily from $49.8 million in the United Kingdom since Nov 28), giving it a worldwide box office target of $220 million.
Opening at around 2,400 theaters Friday, Blackhat from Universal should generate a sub-par $4,500 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $10.5 million opening weekend). For the Friday-Monday long weekend, the film should total $13.0 million domestic. In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging a middling 50% positive score. Blackhat is on track for around $30 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $20 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $50 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Jan 16-18, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | |||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Four-Day Friday-Monday | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| American Sniper | WB | R | 74% | 28.0 | 34.5 | 95 | |
| The Wedding Ringer | Sony | R | n/a | 24.0 | 29.5 | 70 | |
| Paddington | Weins | PG | 96% | 17.0 | 21.5 | 80 | |
| Blackhat | Uni | R | 50% | 10.5 | 13.0 | 30 | |
Taken 3 and Selma are the most significant holdovers, but the bench is already starting to thin out.
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RETURNING FILMS Jan 16-18, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Taken 3 | Fox | -56% | 17.4 | 101 | |
| Selma | Par | -11% | 10.0 | 52 | |
| Into the Woods | Dis | -37% | 6.1 | 130 | |
| The Imitation Game | Weins | -20% | 5.8 | 57 | |
| The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies | WB | -49% | 4.8 | 290 | |
| Unbroken | Uni | -46% | 4.4 | 125 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $118 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 34th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $154 million (while 2013 was $117 million, 2012 was $110 million and 2011 was $89 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $134 million, up +14% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but down -13% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
1.17.2014
Ride Along Uni PG13 Kevin Hart Ice Cube
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $41
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $123 Actual: $134
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $19
Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit Par PG13 Chris Pine Keira Knightly
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $53 Actual: $51
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $85
The Nut Job Open Road PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66 Actual: $64
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $49
Devil’s Due Fox R Zach Gilford Allison Miller
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $14 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21
1.18.2013
Mama Uni PG13 Jessica Chastain Nikolaj Coster-Waldau
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $28
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $80 Actual: $72
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $75
The Last Stand LG/Sum R Arnold Schwarzenegger Johnny Knoxville
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $17 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $25
Broken City Fox R Mark Wahlberg Russell Crowe
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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