Articles

January 14, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 1.16-18.2015

Weekend #3 of 2015 is looking like $134 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up from the norm for this weekend but down from the same weekend last year.

Opening at around 3,200 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), American Sniper from Warner Brothers should average a solid $8,800 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $28.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Across the four-day holiday weekend, the film should gross $34.5 million in North America.  In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging a positive but not over-the-top 74% positive. American Sniper is on track for around $95 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $35 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $130 million.

Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday, The Wedding Ringer from Sony/Screen Gems should average a similar $8,400 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $24.0 million opening weekend).  Across the four-day MLK weekend, the film should bring in $29.5 million.  No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. The Wedding Ringer is on track for around $70 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $15 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $85 million.

Opening at about 3,000 theaters Friday, Paddington from Weinstein Company should average $5,700 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $17.0 million opening weekend).  The film should total $21.5 million domestic for the Friday-Monday long weekend. In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging a near universal 96% positive (and is currently a perfect 100% positive with top critics). Paddington is on track for around $80 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in another $140 million (it is already up to $122.2 million overseas, primarily from $49.8 million in the United Kingdom since Nov 28), giving it a worldwide box office target of $220 million.

Opening at around 2,400 theaters Friday, Blackhat from Universal should generate a sub-par $4,500 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $10.5 million opening weekend).  For the Friday-Monday long weekend, the film should total $13.0 million domestic. In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging a middling 50% positive score. Blackhat is on track for around $30 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $20 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $50 million.

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

Jan 16-18, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Four-Day Friday-Monday  Domestic Total Projection
American Sniper WB R 74% 28.0 34.5 95
The Wedding Ringer Sony R n/a 24.0 29.5 70
Paddington Weins PG 96% 17.0 21.5 80
Blackhat Uni R 50% 10.5 13.0 30
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Taken 3 and Selma are the most significant holdovers, but the bench is already starting to thin out.

RETURNING FILMS

Jan 16-18, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Taken 3 Fox -56% 17.4 101
Selma Par -11% 10.0 52
Into the Woods Dis -37% 6.1 130
The Imitation Game Weins -20% 5.8 57
The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies WB -49% 4.8 290
Unbroken Uni -46% 4.4 125

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $118 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 34th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $154 million (while 2013 was $117 million, 2012 was $110 million and 2011 was $89 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $134 million, up +14% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but down -13% from the same weekend last year.

 

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

1.17.2014

Ride Along Uni PG13 Kevin Hart Ice Cube
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $41
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $123 Actual: $134
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $19

Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit Par PG13 Chris Pine Keira Knightly
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $18 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $53 Actual: $51
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $85

The Nut Job Open Road PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $66 Actual: $64
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $49

Devil’s Due Fox R Zach Gilford Allison Miller
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $14 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $21

1.18.2013

Mama Uni PG13 Jessica Chastain Nikolaj Coster-Waldau
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $28
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $80 Actual: $72
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $75

The Last Stand LG/Sum R Arnold Schwarzenegger Johnny Knoxville
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $17 Actual: $12
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $25

Broken City Fox R Mark Wahlberg Russell Crowe
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $23 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.