Weekend #1 of 2015 is looking like $133 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up +12% from the norm for this weekend and up +4% from the same weekend last year.
Opening at 2,602 theaters Friday (somewhat below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), The Woman in Black 2 from Relativity should average a lame $3,800 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $9.8 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging 33% positive reviews. Woman in Black 2 is on track for around $22 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $65 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $87 million.
This would be below the $127.7 million worldwide for The Woman in Black which was released by CBS Films on 2.3.2012 and starred Daniel Radcliffe ($54.3 million domestic total and $73.4 million overseas).
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Jan 2-4, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Woman in Black 2 | Rel | PG13 | 33% | 9.8 | 22 | |
Thankfully for Hollywood, the weekend box office will not rise or fall on the fortunes of one wobbly new release by Relativity. There are plenty of strong holdovers from the lead-up to Christmas, with three films expected to be over $20 million this weekend and another two close to $15 million.
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RETURNING FILMS Jan 2-4, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies | WB | -43% | 23.5 | 295 | |
| Into the Woods | Dis | -33% | 20.9 | 150 | |
| Unbroken | Uni | -34% | 20.2 | 145 | |
| Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb | Fox | -28% | 14.5 | 120 | |
| Annie | Sony | -28% | 11.9 | 100 | |
| Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 | LG/Sum | -27% | 7.3 | 340 | |
| The Imitation Game | Weins | -13% | 6.9 | 79 | |
| The Gambler | Par | -38% | 5.7 | 45 | |
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | -14% | 4.3 | 215 | |
| Wild | Fox S | -22% | 4.2 | 48 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $119 million total, ranking 29th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $128 million (while 2013 was $124 million, 2012 was $126 million and 2011 was $99 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $133 million, up +12% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +4% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
1.3.2014
Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones Par R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $32
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $58
1.4.2013
The Impossible LG/Sum PG13 Naomi Watts Ewan McGregor
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $17 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $161
Texas Chainsaw 3D LG/Sum R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $35 Actual: $34
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Promised Land Foc/Uni R Matt Damon John Krasinski
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $10 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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