Weekend #5 of 2016 is looking like $129 million for the top 12 films this weekend, much stronger than normal (see comparisons below).
Kung Fu Panda 3 from Fox and DreamWorks Animation should open with $49.5 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $165 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $560 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $725 million.
This would be above the $665 million worldwide for Kung Fu Panda 2 (released 5.26.2011) with $165 million domestic and $500 million overseas and above the $632 million worldwide for Kung Fu Panda (released 6.6.2008) with $215 million domestic and $416 million overseas.
The Finest Hours from Disney should open with $10.0 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $31 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $26 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $57 million.
Fifty Shades of Black from Open Road Films should open with $9.5 million Friday-Sunday. The film is on track for around $24 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $20 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $44 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND January 29-31, 2016 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| King Fu Panda 3 | Fox | PG | 89% | 49.5 | 165 | |
| The Finest Hours | Dis | PG13 | 53% | 10.0 | 31 | |
| Fifty Shades of Black | Open | R | n/a | 9.5 | 24 | |
Returning film chart:
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RETURNING FILMS January 29-31, 2016 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | ||||
| Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | |||||
| The Revenant | Fox | -26% | 11.9 | 179 | ||
| Star Wars: The Force Awakens | Dis | -26% | 10.4 | 928 | ||
| Ride Along 2 | Uni | -43% | 7.1 | 82 | ||
| Dirty Grandpa | LG | -36% | 7.1 | 26 | ||
| 13 Hours | Par | -34% | 6.0 | 56 | ||
| The 5th Wave | Sony | -46% | 5.6 | 21 | ||
| The Boy | STX | -51% | 5.3 | 22 | ||
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $80 million total, ranking 51st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $85 million (while 2014 was $71 million, 2013 was $69 million and 2012 was $94 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like an unusually high $129 million, up +62% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +52% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
1.30.2015
Project Almanac Par PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $27 Actual: $22
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $11
Black or White Rel PG13 Kevin Costner Octavia Spencer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $5 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $24 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
The Loft Open Road R Karl Urban James Marsden
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $4 Actual: $6
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
1.31.2014
That Awkward Moment Uni R Zac Effron Michael B Jordan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $14
Labor Day Par PG13 Kate Winslet Josh Brolin
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $13
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $6
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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