Weekend #5 of 2015 is looking like
Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday (near the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Project Almanac from Paramount should average $5,950 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $16.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. Project Almanac is on track for around
Opening at around 1,500 theaters Friday, Black or White from Relativity should average a weak $3,100 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $4.5 million opening weekend). In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging a soft 36% positive score. Black or White is on track for around
Opening at about 1,841 theaters Friday, The Loft from Open Road Films should average a very weak $1,300 per theater Friday-Sunday (for a $2.5 million opening weekend). No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. The Loft is on track for around
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND
Jan 30-Feb 1, 2015
|
Critics Positive |
($ millions) |
|
Opening Weekend Forecast |
Domestic Total Projection |
|
Project Almanac |
Par |
PG13 |
n/a |
16.5 |
36 |
|
Black or White |
Rel |
PG13 |
36% |
4.5 |
13 |
|
The Loft |
OpenR |
R |
n/a |
2.5 |
4 |
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
American Sniper remains the main force at the otherwise tepid box office.
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RETURNING FILMS
Jan 30-Feb 1, 2015
|
Change vs Last Weekend |
($ millions) |
|
Weekend Forecast |
Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. |
|
American Sniper |
WB |
-37% |
41.0 |
375 |
|
Boy Next Door |
Uni |
-49% |
7.7 |
35 |
|
Paddington |
Weins |
-34% |
7.5 |
75 |
|
Wedding Ringer |
Sony |
-44% |
6.9 |
69 |
|
The Imitation Game |
Weins |
-29% |
5.0 |
82 |
|
Taken 3 |
Fox |
-52% |
3.6 |
88 |
|
Selma |
Par |
-40% |
3.3 |
63 |
|
Strange Magic |
Dis |
-49% |
2.8 |
11 |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $77 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 50th of 52 weeks — a tough weekend dominated by the largest television event of the year. (The only worse weekends normally are Labor Day weekend and the first weekend of December.) Last year, this weekend’s total was $71 million (while 2013 was $69 million, 2012 was $94 million and 2011 was $73 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a better than normal $104 million, up +34% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +46% from the same weekend last year. American Sniper is the gift that keeps on giving.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
1.31.2014
That Awkward Moment Uni R Zac Effron Michael B Jordan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $26 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $14
Labor Day Par PG13 Kate Winslet Josh Brolin
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $13
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $6
2.1.2013
Warm Bodies LG/Sum PG13 Nicholas Hoult Teresa Palmer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $20 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $67 Actual: $66
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $51
Bullet to the Head WB R Sylvester Stallone
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $13 Actual: $9
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
Related Posts
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Weekend Box Office Predictions
The weekend predictions will return next week, when Exodus: God and Kings and Top Five are released nationally. This weekend, typical for the post-Thanksgiving weekend, is extremely quiet. Only The Pyramid is opening at a very small 589 theaters.
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