Weekend #2 of 2015 is looking like $118 million for the top 12 films this weekend, very close to the norm for this weekend and down slightly from the same weekend last year.
Opening at 3,500 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Taken 3 from Fox should average a decent $8,700 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $30.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging a weak 30% positive. Taken 3 is on track for around $85 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $225 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $310 million. This would be below the $376.1 million worldwide for Taken 2 (released 10.5.2012 with $139.9 million total domestic and $236.3 million overseas) but still above the $226.8 million worldwide for Taken (released 1.30.2009 with $145.0 million domestic and $81.8 million overseas).
Expanding to a close to a thousand theaters nationwide, Selma from Paramount should go wide with an $18.5 million three-day weekend. Through Sunday, the film should total $21 million including the platform weeks. In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging a perfect 100% positive score so far. Selma is on track for around $68 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $55 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $123 million.
Also expanding to a few hundred theaters, Inherent Vice from Warner Brothers should generate a more narrow $2.5 million three-day weekend. In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, the film is averaging a polite 72% positive score. Through Sunday, the film should total $4 million, including previous platform weeks. Inherent Vice is on track for around $15 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $10 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $25 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Jan 9-11, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Taken 3 | Fox | PG13 | 30% | 30.5 | 85 | |
| Selma | Par | PG13 | 100% | 18.5 | 68 | |
| Inherent Vice | WB | R | 72% | 2.5 | 15 | |
Down to three significant holdovers, with each just barely above the $10 million threshold for the weekend. (Note: weekend forecasts for holdovers adjusted slightly from the initial post.)
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RETURNING FILMS Jan 9-11, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Into the Woods | Dis | -43% | 10.8 | 156 | |
| The Hobbit: Battle of the Five Armies | WB | -51% | 10.8 | 308 | |
| Unbroken | Uni | -44% | 10.1 | 149 | |
| Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb | Fox | -46% | 7.8 | 142 | |
| The Imitation Game | Weins | -0% | 7.8 | 68 | |
| Annie | Sony | -47% | 6.0 | 108 | |
| Woman in Black 2 | Rel | -66% | 5.1 | 32 | |
| Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 | LG/Sum | -56% | 4.5 | 350 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $119 million total, ranking 30th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $122 million (while 2013 was $121 million, 2012 was $115 million and 2011 was $115 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $118 million, down -1% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -3% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
1.10.2014
Lone Survivor Uni R Mark Wahlberg Taylor Kitsch
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $38
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $131 Actual: $125
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $24
August: Osage County Weins R Meryl Streep Julia Roberts
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $40 Actual: $38
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $36
Legend of Hercules LG/Sum PG13 Kellan Lutz
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $16 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $42
Her WB R Joaquin Phoenix Scarlett Johansson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $31 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $22
Inside Llewyn Davis CBS R Oscar Isaac Carey Mulligan
Opening Weekend — Forecast: n/a Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $13
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $20
1.11.2013
Zero Dark Thirty Sony R Jessica Chastain Jason Clarke
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $100 Actual: $96
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $13
Gangster Squad WB R Sean Penn Ryan Gosling
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $51 Actual: $46
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $59
A Haunted House Open Road R Marlon Wayans
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $43 Actual: $40
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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