Weekend #41 of 2014 is looking like $126 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 19% from the norm for this weekend.
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day from Disney should average a barely above average $6,100 per theater for the weekend (for an $18.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early critical sentiment is somewhat positive: 63% positive reviews so far at RottenTomatoes. Alexander and the… is on track for around $80 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in maybe $25 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $105 million.
Opening at around 2,700 theaters Friday, The Judge from Warner Brothers should average a mediocre $5,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $15.0 million opening three-day weekend). Not much love from critics: only 44% positive so far. The Judge is on track for around $44 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $46 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $90 million.
Opening at around 2,800 theaters Friday, Dracula Untold from Universal should average a mediocre $5,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $14.5 million opening three-day weekend). Not much critical support: only 27% positive so far in early reviews. Dracula Untold is on track for around $34 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross at least $75 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $109 million.
Opening at around 800 theaters Friday, Addicted from Lionsgate/Summit should average a very respectable $8,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $7.0 million opening three-day weekend). No early reviews for this one either. Addicted is on track for around $16 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross perhaps $8 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $24 million.
|
NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND October 10-12, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible… | Dis | PG | 63% | 18.0 | 80 | |
| The Judge | WB | R | 44% | 15.0 | 44 | |
| Dracula Untold | Uni | R | 27% | 14.5 | 34 | |
| Addicted | LG/Sum | PG13 | n/a | 7.0 | 16 | |
Gone Girl should be the top holdover and has an excellent shot at #1 overall again this weekend. Annabelle should be the #2 holdover this weekend, at might be #2 or #3 overall.
|
RETURNING FILMS October 10-12, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Gone Girl | Fox | -41% | 22.3 | 115 | |
| Annabelle | WB | -54% | 17.0 | 88 | |
| The Equalizer | Sony | -43% | 10.7 | 112 | |
| The Boxtrolls | Uni/Foc | -34% | 7.9 | 65 | |
| Maze Runner | Fox | -39% | 7.2 | 100 | |
| Left Behind | Free | -43% | 3.0 | 9 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $106 million total, ranking 38th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $107 million (while 2012 was $121 million, 2011 was $77 million and 2010 was $120 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very solid $126 million, up 19% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 18% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10.11.2013
Captain Phillips Sony PG13 Tom Hanks
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $23 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $100 Actual: $107
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $112
Machete Kills Open Road R Danny Trejo Michelle Rodriguez
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $6 Actual: $8
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $7
10.12.2012
Argo WB R Ben Affleck Bryan Cranston
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $92 Actual: $136
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $96
Sinister Summit R Ethan Hawke
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54 Actual: $48
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $30
Here Comes the Boom Sony PG Kevin James Salma Hayek
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $43 Actual: $45
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $28
Seven Psychopaths CBS R Colin Farrell Sam Rockwell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $5 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $22 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
Atlas Shrugged Part II Atlas PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $4 Actual: $3
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
About the Author
