Weekend #42 of 2014 is looking like $136 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 22% from the norm for this weekend.
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday (slightly above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Fury from Sony should average a very solid $9,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $30.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early critical sentiment is very solid: 79% positive reviews so far at RottenTomatoes. Fury is on track for around $92 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $111 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $203 million.
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday, The Book of Life from 20th Century Fox should average a mediocre $5,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $16.5 million opening three-day weekend). Critical sentiment is somewhat positive: 64% positive so far. The Book of Life is on track for around $76 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $72 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $148 million.
Opening at around 2,600 theaters Friday, The Best of Me from Relativity should average a similarly mediocre $5,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $13.0 million opening three-day weekend). No reviews yet for this film. The Best of Me is on track for around $34 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $20 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $54 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND October 17-19, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Fury | Sony | PG | 79% | 30.0 | 92 | |
| The Book of Life | Fox | R | 64% | 16.5 | 76 | |
| The Best of Me | Rel | R | n/a | 13.0 | 34 | |
Gone Girl remains the top holdover, although it will have to cede the top spot overall to Fury.
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RETURNING FILMS October 17-19, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Gone Girl | Fox | -28% | 19.0 | 152 | |
| Alexander and the… | Dis | -38% | 11.4 | 81 | |
| Dracula Untold | Uni | -52% | 11.4 | 58 | |
| The Judge | WB | -36% | 8.4 | 39 | |
| Annabelle | WB | -50% | 7.9 | 93 | |
| The Equalizer | Sony | -45% | 5.4 | 107 | |
| Maze Runner | Fox | -38% | 4.7 | 100 | |
| The Boxtrolls | Uni/Foc | -41% | 3.9 | 60 | |
| Addicted | LG/Sum | -51% | 3.7 | 16 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $111 million total, ranking 36th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $93 million (while 2012 was $121 million, 2011 was $109 million and 2010 was $120 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a very solid $136 million, up 22% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 45% from the same weekend last year, which was abnormally weak.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10.18.2013
Escape Plan LG/Sum R Sylvester Stallone Arnold Schwarzenegger
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $28 Actual: $25
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $112
Carrie Sony R Chloe Moretz Judy Greer
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $25 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $39 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $50
The Fifth Estate Dis R Benedict Cumberbatch Daniel Bruhl
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $4 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $3 Actual: $3
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $5
10.19.2012
Paranormal Activity 4 Par R
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $45 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54 Actual: $54
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $87
Alex Cross Summit PG13 Tyler Perry Matthew Fox
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $27 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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