Weekend #40 of 2014 is looking like $117 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up 13% from the norm for this weekend.
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Gone Girl from 20th Century Fox should average a solid $10,600 per theater for the weekend (for a $31.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early critical sentiment is quite positive: 86% positive reviews so far. Gone Girl is on track for around $99 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $120 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $219 million.
Opening at around 3,000 theaters Friday, Annabelle from Warner Brothers should average a decent $8,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $27.0 million opening three-day weekend). No critical sentiment yet. Annabelle is on track for around $67 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $70 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $137 million.
Opening at 1,785 theaters Friday, Left Behind from Freestyle Releasing should average an apocalyptic $3,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $6.0 million opening three-day weekend). No early reviews for this one either. Left Behind is on track for around $11 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross perhaps $1 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $12 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND October 3-5, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Gone Girl | Fox | R | 86% | 31.5 | 99 | |
| Annabelle | WB | R | n/a | 27.0 | 67 | |
| Left Behind | Free | PG13 | n/a | 6.0 | 11 | |
The Equalizer is destined to be the top holdover but well behind the pace of the two main openers.
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RETURNING FILMS October 3-5, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| The Equalizer | Sony | -50% | 17.0 | 101 | |
| The Boxtrolls | Uni/Foc | -40% | 10.4 | 75 | |
| Maze Runner | Fox | -44% | 9.8 | 99 | |
| This Is Where I Leave You | WB | -39% | 4.2 | 39 | |
| Dolphin Tale 2 | WB | -40% | 2.9 | 46 | |
| Guardians of the Galaxy | Dis | -30% | 2.7 | 335 | |
| No Good Deed | WB | -53% | 2.1 | 52 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $104 million total, ranking 40th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $115 million (while 2012 was $133 million, 2011 was $85 million and 2010 was $81 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $117 million, up 13% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up 2% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10.4.2013
Gravity WB PG13 Sandra Bullock George Clooney
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $39 Actual: $56
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $243 Actual: $274
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $442
Runner Runner Fox R Justin Timberlake Gemma Arterton
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $18 Actual: $19
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $43
Pulling Strings LG/Sum PG Laura Ramsey
Opening Weekend — Forecast: n/a Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $9 Actual: $6
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $2
10.5.2012
Taken 2 FOX PG13 Liam Neeson Maggie Grace
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $41 Actual: $50
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $133 Actual: $140
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $236
Frankenweenie DIS PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $44 Actual: $35
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $32
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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