Weekend #44 of 2014 is looking like $73 million for the top 12 films this weekend, down 40% from the norm for this weekend. This weekend though is really an afterthought, as the calendar trashed it as it does every seven years by placing Halloween on a Friday. Some half-hearted openings this odd weekend, and then the studios will really get down to business next weekend with a normally configured weekend.
Opening at 2,766 theaters Friday (just below the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Nightcrawler from Open Road should average a sub-par $4,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $11.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Nevertheless, critical sentiment is very positive: 89% positive so far at RottenTomatoes. Nightcrawler is on track for around $42 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $56 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $98 million.
Returning in around 1,850 theaters Friday, Saw 10th Anniversary from Lionsgate/Summit should average a low $3,100 per theater for the weekend (for a $5.5 million three-day weekend). Critical sentiment is split: 48% positive reviews. Saw 10th Anniversary is on track for around $13 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $8 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $21 million.
Opening at around 1,700 theaters Friday, Before I Go to Sleep from Clarius should average a horrible $1,900 per theater for the weekend (for a $3.0 million opening three-day weekend). Critical sentiment is slightly positive: 56% positive so far. Before I Go to Sleep is on track for around $13 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $2 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $15 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Oct 31-Nov 2, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Nightcrawler | OpenRoad | R | 89% | 11.5 | 42 | |
| Saw 10th Anniversary | LG/Sum | R | 48% | 5.5 | 13 | |
| Before I Go to Sleep | Clarius | R | 56% | 3.0 | 13 | |
All of the sudden there are no holdovers at the $10 million weekend level.
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RETURNING FILMS Oct 31-Nov 2, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Ouija | Uni | -56% | 8.7 | 45 | |
| John Wick | LG/Sum | -43% | 8.3 | 50 | |
| Fury | Sony | -41% | 7.9 | 83 | |
| Gone Girl | Fox | -35% | 7.2 | 157 | |
| The Book of Life | Fox | -43% | 5.8 | 57 | |
| St. Vincent | Weins | -35% | 5.0 | 30 | |
| Alexander and the… | Dis | -40% | 4.3 | 63 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $123 million total, ranking 29th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $119 million (while 2012 was $125 million, 2011 was $104 million and 2010 was $143 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a respectable $73 million, down 40% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down 38% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11.1.2013
12 Years a Slave Fox R Chiwetel Ejiofor Michael Fassbender
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $0 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $57
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $131
Last Vegas CBS PG13 Michael Douglas Robert DeNiro
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $61 Actual: $64
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $70
Ender’s Game LG/Sum PG13 Asa Butterfield Harrison Ford
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $29 Actual: $27
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $67 Actual: $62
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $64
Free Birds Rel PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $16
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $54 Actual: $56
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $55
11.2.2012
Wreck-It Ralph Dis PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $33 Actual: $49
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $179 Actual: $189
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $282
Flight Par R Denzel Washington John Goodman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $13 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $87 Actual: $94
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $68
Man with the Iron Fists Uni R Russell Crowe Lucy Liu
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $16
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $4
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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