Articles

November 11, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 11.13-15.2015

Weekend #46 of 2015 is looking like a tepid $102 million for the top 12 films this weekend, well below the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).

The 33 from Warner Brothers should open with a $8.0 million weekend. The film is on track for around $23 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $27 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $50 million.

Love the Coopers from CBS Films should open with a $6.8 million weekend. The film is on track for around $15 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $4 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $19 million.

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

November 13-15, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
The 33 WB PG13 41% 8.0 23
Love the Coopers CBS PG13 n/a 6.8 15
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Returning film chart:

RETURNING FILMS

November 13-15, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Spectre Sony -53% 32.8 204
Peanuts Movie Fox -38% 27.6 163
The Martian Fox -18% 7.4 229
Bridge of Spies Dis -21% 4.6 71
Goosebumps Sony -31% 4.7 82
Hotel Transylvania 2 Sony -61% 2.3 173
Burnt Weins -42% 1.7 15

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $176 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 7th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $130 million (while 2013 was $119 million, 2012 was $242 million and 2011 was $215 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a really soft $102 million, down -42% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -21% from the same weekend last year.  

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

11.14.2014

Dumb and Dumber To Uni PG13 Jim Carrey Jeff Daniels
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $31 Actual: $36
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $84 Actual: $86
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $84

Birdman Fox R Michael Keaton Zach Galifianakis
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $3 Actual: $2
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $25 Actual: $42
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $61

Beyond the Lights Rel PG13 Gugu Mbatha-Raw Nate Parker
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $8 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $20 Actual: $14
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0

11.15.2013

Best Man Holiday Uni R Morris Chestnut Taye Diggs
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $21 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $80 Actual: $70
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.