Weekend #46 of 2014 is looking like $128 million for the top 12 films this weekend, down 33% from the norm for this weekend.
Opening at 3,152 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Dumb and Dumber To from Universal should average a solid $10,400 per theater for the weekend (for a $33.0 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] No reviews yet at RottenTomatoes. Dumb and Dumber To is on track for around $95 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $75 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $170 million. This would be below the $247.3 million worldwide for Dumb and Dumber (released 12.16.1994 by New Line with $127.2 million domestic and $120.1 million overseas) but well above the $39.3 million worldwide for Dumb and Dumberer: When Harry Met Lloyd (the one not directed by the Farrelly brothers, released 6.13.2003 by New Line with $26.3 million domestic and $12.9 million overseas).
Opening at around 1,600 theaters Friday, Beyond the Lights from Relativity should average a slightly above average $6,300 per theater for the weekend (for a $10.0 million three-day weekend). Critical sentiment is very supportive: 91% positive in the limited number of early reviews, so it could stick around longer than its opening would suggest. Beyond the Lights is on track for around $39 million domestic. Overseas the film could gross $6 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $45 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Nov 14-16, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Dumb and Dumber To | Uni | PG13 | n/a | 33.0 | 95 | |
| Beyond the Lights | Rel | PG13 | 91% | 10.0 | 39 | |
Last weekend’s openers will provide massive support to the weekend box office.
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RETURNING FILMS Nov 14-16, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | -36% | 35.9 | 193 | |
| Interstellar | Par | -49% | 24.4 | 138 | |
| Gone Girl | Fox | -28% | 4.5 | 166 | |
| St. Vincent | Weins | -28% | 3.9 | 43 | |
| Fury | Sony | -37% | 3.6 | 85 | |
| Ouija | Uni | -45% | 3.2 | 54 | |
| Nightcrawler | OpenR | -47% | 2.9 | 36 | |
| Birdman | FoxS | +25% | 2.9 | n/a | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $191 million total, ranking 3rd of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $119 million (while 2012 was $242 million, 2011 was $215 million and 2010 was $186 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $128 million, down 33% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but up 8% from the same weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11.15.2013
Best Man Holiday Uni R Morris Chestnut Taye Diggs
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $21 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $80 Actual: $70
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
11.16.2012
Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 Summit PG13 Kristen Stewart Robert Pattinson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $148 Actual: $141
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $318 Actual: $292
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $537
Lincoln Dis PG13 Daniel Day-Lewis Sally Field
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $16 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $142 Actual: $182
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $93
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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