Weekend #48 of 2014 is looking like $165 million for the top 12 films this weekend, down 8% from the norm for Thanksgiving weekend but down a bigger 15% from the same weekend last year (when Frozen opened its long run).
Opening at over 3,600 theaters Wednesday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Penguins of Madagascar from Fox and production company DreamWorks Animation should average $10,100 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $36.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] For the first five days Wednesday-Sunday, the film should total around $53 million. In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, Penguins of Madagascar is averaging a modest 60% positive reviews. Penguins of Madagascar is on track for around $150 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $425 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $575 million. This would be slightly above the $532.7 million worldwide for Madagascar (released 5.27.2005 with a $193.6 million domestic total and $339.1 million overseas total) but below the $618.8 million worldwide for the recent How to Train Your Dragon 2 (released 6.13.2014 with $176.9 million domestic total and $441.9 million overseas total).
Opening at over 3,300 theaters Wednesday, Horrible Bosses 2 from Warner Brothers should average $7,700 per theater for the weekend (for a $25.0 million opening three-day weekend). Across the first five days, the film should total about $36 million. In early reviews at RottenTomatoes, Horrible Bosses 2 is averaging a bad 31% positive reviews. Horrible Bosses 2 is on track for around $95 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $100 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $195 million. This would be somewhat below the $209.6 million worldwide for Horrible Bosses (released 7.8.2011 with $117.5 million domestic total and $92.1 million overseas total).
Expanding to 749 theaters Wednesday, The Theory of Everything from Focus/Universal should average $4,500 per theater for the weekend (for a $3.5 million first wide three-day weekend). Across the five-day holiday weekend, the film should gross $5 million. Through Sunday the film should stand at around $8 million, including the early platform weeks. Reviews at RottenTomatoes are a terrific 82% positive. The Theory of Everything is on track for around $25 million domestic with a long play pattern. Overseas the film could bring in around $70 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $95 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND Nov 28-30, 2014 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | |||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Wed-Sun Five-Day Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Penguins of Madagascar | Fox/DW | PG | 60% | 36.5 | 53.0 | 150 | |
| Horrible Bosses 2 | WB | R | 31% | 25.0 | 36.0 | 95 | |
| Theory of Everything | Foc/Uni | PG13 | 82% | 3.5 | 5.0 | 25 | |
Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 remains a very big number in its second weekend, but the expected decline of -56% suggests a rapid decay. Big Hero 6 and Interstellar have another weekend or two of significant holdover business.
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RETURNING FILMS Nov 28-30, 2014 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Hunger Games Mockingjay Part 1 | LG/Sum | -56% | 53.8 | 355 | |
| Big Hero 6 | Dis | -13% | 17.5 | 195 | |
| Interstellar | Par | -21% | 12.1 | 175 | |
| Dumb and Dumber To | Uni | -43% | 8.0 | 85 | |
| Gone Girl | Fox | -15% | 2.4 | 168 | |
| Birdman | FoxS | +8% | 2.0 | 23 | |
| St. Vincent | Weins | -20% | 1.8 | 43 | |
| Beyond the Lights | Rel | -35% | 1.7 | 18 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films Thanksgiving weekend have averaged $180 million total, ranking 6th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $195 million (while 2012 was $200 million, 2011 was $155 million and 2010 was $171 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $165 million, down 8% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down 15% from the same weekend last year, which was anchored by Frozen.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11.29.2013
Frozen (3D) Dis PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $48 Actual: $67
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $207 Actual: $400
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $873
Philomena Weins PG13 Steve Coogan Judi Dench
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $19 Actual: $38
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $62
The Book Thief Fox PG13 Geoffrey Rush Emily Watson
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $18 Actual: $21
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $55
Homefront Open Road R Jason Statham James Franco
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $7 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $22 Actual: $20
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $23
Black Nativity Fox PG Forest Whitaker Angela Bassett
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $9 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $8 Actual: $7
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Oldboy FilmDis R Josh Brolin Elizabeth Olsen
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $1
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $2 Actual: $2
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $3
11.23.2012
Life of Pi Fox PG Suraj Sharma
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $14 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $82 Actual: $125
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $484
Rise of the Guardians Par/ DW PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $32 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $82 Actual: $103
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $200
Red Dawn FilmDis PG13 Josh Hutcherson Chris Hemsworth
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $12 Actual: $14
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $41 Actual: $45
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the long holiday weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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