Articles

November 4, 2015
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 11.6-8.2015

Weekend #45 of 2015 is looking like a solid $165 million for the top 12 films this weekend, up somewhat from the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).

Spectre from Sony should open with a $85.5 million weekend. The film is on track for around $245 million domestic in its run. Overseas the film could bring in $835 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $1.080 billion.

That would be a touch below the $1.108 billion worldwide for Skyfall (released 11.9.2013) with $304 million domestic and $804 million overseas.

Peanuts Movie from Fox should open with a $47.0 million weekend. The film is on track for around $165 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in $190 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $355 million.

 

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

November 6-8, 2015

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection
Spectre Sony PG13 65% 85.5 245
Peanuts Movie Fox G 83% 47.0 165
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Returning film chart:

RETURNING FILMS

November 6-8, 2015

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
The Martian Fox -36% 7.5 218
Bridge of Spies Dis -37% 5.3 70
Goosebumps Sony -47% 5.2 82
Hotel Transylvania 2 Sony -50% 2.9 173
Burnt Weins -50% 2.5 10
Last Witch Hunter LG -51% 2.5 27
Our Brand Is Crisis WB -46% 1.8 8
Paranormal Activity: Ghost Dimension Par -59% 1.4 15

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $149 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 15th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $147 million (while 2013 was $160 million, 2012 was $163 million and 2011 was $126 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a nice rebound from last weekend’s Halloween disaster, a solid $165 million, up +11% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and up +13% from the same weekend last year.  

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

11.7.2014

Interstellar Par PG13 Matthew McConaughey Anne Hathaway
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $64 Actual: $48
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $173 Actual: $188
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $487

Big Hero 6 Dis PG
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $57 Actual: $56
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $203 Actual: $222
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $435

11.8.2013

Thor: The Dark World Dis PG13 Chris Hemsworth Natalie Portman
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $96 Actual: $86
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $229 Actual: $206
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $438

About Time Uni R Tom Hollander Rachel McAdams
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $6 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $22 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $72

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.