Articles

February 25, 2016
 

Weekend Box Office Predictions 2.26-28.2016

Weekend #9 of 2016 is looking like $98 million for the top 12 films this weekend, somewhat below the norm for this weekend (see comparisons below).

NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND

February 26-28, 2016

Critics Positive ($ millions)
Opening Weekend Forecast Domestic Total Projection Overseas Total Projection Worldwide Total Projection
Gods of Egypt LG PG13 n/a 11.5 30 175 205
Triple 9 ORF R 61% 11.0 35 65 100
Eddie the Eagle Fox PG13 74% 8.5 30 30 60
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie. The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Returning film chart:

RETURNING FILMS

February 26-28, 2016

Change vs Last Weekend ($ millions)
Weekend Forecast Fri-Sun Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj.
Deadpool Fox -47% 29.9 374
Kung Fu Panda 3 Fox -32% 8.5 145
Risen Sony -36% 7.5 38
How to Be Single WB -41% 4.8 50
The Witch A24 -51% 4.3 29
Race Focus -42% 4.3 26
The Revenant Fox -51% 3.2 185
Star Wars: The Force Awakens Dis -31% 2.7 935
Zoolander 2 Par -61% 2.1 33

 

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $112 million total, ranking 37th of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $93 million (while 2014 was $108 million, 2013 was $93 million and 2012 was $152 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like $98 million, down -12% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend but up +5% from the same weekend last year.

This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)

2.27.2015

Focus WB R Will Smith Margot Robbie
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $22 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $59 Actual: $54
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $105

Lazarus Effect Rel PG13 Olivia Wilde Mark Duplass
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $11 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $24 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $38

2.28.2014

Non-Stop Uni PG13 Liam Neeson Julianne Moore
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $28 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $92 Actual: $92
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $131

Son of God Fox PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $19 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $61 Actual: $60
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $8

Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.

 



About the Author

Mitch Metcalf
MITCH METCALF has been tracking every US film release of over 500 screens (over 2300 movies and counting) since the storied weekend of May 20, 1994, when Maverick and Beverly Hills Cop 3 inspired countless aficionados to devote their lives to the art of cinema. Prior to that, he studied Politics and Economics at Princeton in order to prepare for his dream of working in television. He has been Head of West Coast Research at ABC, then moved to NBC in 2000 and became Head of Scheduling for 11 years.