Weekend #9 of 2015 is looking like $93 million for the top 12 films this weekend, significantly below the normal volume for this weekend (see track below).
Opening at around 3,200 theaters Friday (above the 2,886 average theater count for opening weekends the last two years), Focus from Warner Brothers should average $6,800 per theater for the three-day weekend (for a $21.5 million opening three-day weekend). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had a three-day opening weekend of $5,300 per theater for a $14.5 million weekend.] Early reviews at RottenTomatoes are tilting positive: currently 62% positive so far. Focus is on track for around $65 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in around $95 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $160 million.
Opening at around 2,500 theaters Friday, Lazarus Effect from Relativity should average $4,500 per theater Friday-Sunday (for an $11.0 million opening weekend). No reviews yet — uh oh. Lazarus Effect is on track for around $23 million domestic. Overseas the film could bring in about $13 million, giving it a worldwide box office target of $36 million.
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NEW FILMS THIS WEEKEND February 27-March 1, 2015 |
Critics Positive | ($ millions) | ||||
| Opening Weekend Forecast | Domestic Total Projection | |||||
| Focus | WB | R | 62% | 21.5 | 65 | |
| Lazarus Effect | Rel | PG13 | n/a | 11.0 | 23 | |
Fifty Shades of Grey, Kingsman and SpongeBob remain the main holdovers but each is down to the just barely significant $10 million weekend level.
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RETURNING FILMS February 27-March 1, 2015 |
Change vs Last Weekend | ($ millions) | |||
| Weekend Forecast | Showbuzz Domestic Final Proj. | ||||
| Kingsman: The Secret Service | Fox | -42% | 10.6 | 115 | |
| SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water | Par | -40% | 10.0 | 183 | |
| Fifty Shades of Grey | Foc/Uni | -55% | 10.1 | 165 | |
| McFarland, USA | Dis | -37% | 7.0 | 39 | |
| American Sniper | WB | -33% | 6.8 | 365 | |
| The DUFF | LG/CBS | -44% | 6.1 | 35 | |
| Hot Tub Time Machine 2 | Par | -56% | 2.7 | 11 | |
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films this weekend have averaged $118 million total (Friday-Sunday), ranking 31st of 52 weeks. Last year, this weekend’s total was $108 million (while 2013 was $93 million, 2012 was $152 million and 2011 was $121 million). This Friday-Sunday is looking like a fairly low $93 million, down -21% from the multi-year average for the comparable weekend and down -13% from the same weekend last year (and the first down weekend since the weekend of January 9-11).
This Weekend Last Two Years ($ millions)
2.28.2014
Non-Stop Uni PG13 Liam Neeson Julianne Moore
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $27 Actual: $29
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $92 Actual: $92
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $131
Son of God Fox PG13
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $17 Actual: $26
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $61 Actual: $60
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $8
3.1.2013
Jack the Giant Slayer WB PG13 Nicholas Hoult Stanley Tucci
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $26 Actual: $27
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $64 Actual: $65
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $133
21 and Over Rel R Miles Teller
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $15 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $27 Actual: $26
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
The Last Exorcism Part II CBS R Ashley Bell
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $10 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $14 Actual: $15
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Phantom RCR R Ed Harris David Duchovny
Opening Weekend — Forecast: $2 Actual: $0
Domestic Gross — Estimate: $2 Actual: $1
International — Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
Check back throughout the weekend for box office updates as the actual numbers come in.
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